• Milton Pulling Away

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Oct 10 08:10:00 2024
    963
    WTNT34 KNHC 101152
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
    800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

    ...CENTER OF MILTON PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

    ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE
    SPACE COAST...

    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...28.9N 79.5W
    ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
    ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Hurricane Warnings south of Sebastian Inlet and north of the Flagler/Volusia County Line have been changed to Tropical Storm
    Warnings.

    The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida west coast has been discontinued.

    The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Palm
    Beach/Martin County Line.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
    St. Johns River

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet northward to the
    Flagler/Volusia County Line

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to the Palm
    Beach/Martin County Line
    * Lake Okeechobee
    * North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach South Carolina
    * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
    Abacos, and Bimini

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
    the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
    see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
    Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
    to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
    near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Milton is moving
    toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
    motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
    east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will
    continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the
    Bahamas today.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to
    become a powerful extratropical low tonight.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
    miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to
    76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in
    Marineland. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 67
    mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at the Cocoa-Patrick Air Force Base.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
    St. Johns River...2-4 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
    onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
    dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
    timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
    short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
    inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
    Surge Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

    RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
    across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast
    through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk
    of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to
    major river flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are occurring
    within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm
    conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in
    Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas.

    SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
    affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
    next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
    surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
    local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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