• Heavy Rain/Flooding W FL

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Wed Oct 9 12:03:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 091518
    FFGMPD
    FLZ000-092100-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1117 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

    Areas affected...western FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 091516Z - 092100Z

    Summary...A powerful outer rain band is expected to reach the west
    coast of FL over the next 1-2 hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
    in/hr will be possible where training occurs and flash flooding
    will be likely. Additional banding and heavy rain is likely to
    continue into the mid-afternoon, increasing the coverage of flash
    flooding.

    Discussion...15Z radar imagery from KTBW showed an outer rain band
    ahead of Hurricane Milton just offshore from Englewood to Naples.
    This powerful outer rain band has been edging closer to the coast
    and is expected to reach the coastal population centers from south
    to north over the next 1-2 hours. Due to the slow eastward
    movement of this band, peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have been
    estimated at 2 to 2.5 in/hr offshore. As Milton continues to track northeastward toward the west coast of FL through 21Z, this outer
    band is expected to rotate inland and northward, bringing rainfall
    rates of 2-3 in/hr at times along the coast from near Tampa Bay to
    Charlotte Harbor.

    The outer rain band will likely followed by a temporary lull in
    heavy rainfall as it moves through, given a minimum in colder
    cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery between the band and the
    center of Milton. However, additional heavy rain will develop as
    subsequent bands associated with Milton form and move ashore. The
    15Z NHC advisory from NHC indicates Milton is moving toward the
    northeast at 15 kt, with the center forecast to be located about
    30 miles off the coast of Sarasota County at 00Z. Areas along the
    coast will be must susceptible to flash flooding over the next few
    hours given the urban nature and wet antecedent conditions
    including 1-2 inches of rain since midnight. Peak additional
    rainfall through 21Z of 3-5 inches will be possible with areas of
    flash flooding becoming likely.

    Otto

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 28858251 28568204 27708163 26598143 25908133
    25688148 25748190 26418248 27238292 27988310
    28638278
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