• Heavy Rain/Flooding NC

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tue Sep 17 07:37:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 170902
    FFGMPD
    VAZ000-NCZ000-171500-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern NC

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 170900Z - 171500Z

    SUMMARY...An area of low center over northern SC will maintain a
    threat of locally training bands of heavy showers and
    thunderstorms this morning over eastern NC. Some additional areas
    of flash flooding will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
    imagery along with surface observations shows low pressure over
    northern SC. This couple with surface high pressure over the
    Northeast continues to favor a persistent and moist, convergent
    low-level easterly Atlantic fetch across the southern Mid-Atlantic
    region. High PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches coupled with a nose of
    modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
    continues to focus across eastern NC out ahead of a frontal
    occlusion. This is continuing to allow for the development of some
    broken bands of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity.

    The latest radar imagery shows the heaviest rains impacting
    portions of Carteret and Craven Counties where rainfall rates,
    especially in close proximity to Morehead City, have been locally
    as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour over the last couple of hours.

    Additional bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
    this morning to slowly lift north and northwestward across areas
    of eastern NC as the overall frontal occlusion pivots a bit
    farther north across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Persistent
    easterly flow off the Atlantic and an influx of modest instability
    should favor high rainfall rates continuing with some of the
    broken convective bands that maintain some stronger organization.

    The latest hires model guidance generally favors areas of far
    eastern NC with the heaviest additional rainfall totals, with more
    modest amounts farther inland as the nose of instability wanes.
    Some localized additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches of rain cannot
    be ruled out this morning within any of the heavier training
    convective bands. This will certainly maintain an additional
    threat for areas of flash flooding.

    Orrison

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 36577753 36377606 35877552 35427538 35207552
    34977599 34727630 34827674 35327723 35767829
    36327834
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