• Ernesto threatens Bermuda

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Aug 15 08:29:00 2024
    206
    WTNT35 KNHC 151149
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
    800 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

    ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
    ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
    THIS WEEKEND...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.5N 69.3W
    ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Bermuda

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
    tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
    preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
    located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is
    moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
    is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
    northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
    center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on
    Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
    Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is
    forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
    miles (280 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches)
    based on data from a dropsonde.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
    tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

    STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
    significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
    Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
    destructive waves.

    RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
    4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
    inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
    flash flooding.

    SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
    Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
    southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
    the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
    the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
    the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
    and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
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