• Heavy Rain/Flood VANCSCGA

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Sun Aug 4 16:59:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 041954
    FFGMPD
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-050153-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0805
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    353 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast VA...Central/Eastern NC...Much of
    SC...Eastern GA

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 041953Z - 050153Z

    SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
    will continue to evolve this afternoon and early this evening
    across the coastal plain of the southern Mid-Atlantic and
    Southeast. Some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
    flooding will be possible, including sensitives locally to the
    urban centers.

    DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery
    in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows an elongated and broken
    axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms oriented in a southwest to
    northeast fashion across areas of eastern GA and central SC up
    through central and eastern NC and into some portions of southeast
    VA.

    Strong diurnal heating has contributed to MLCAPE values of 1500 to
    2500 J/kg, and the region is very moist/tropical in nature with
    PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches in place based off the latest NESDIS
    Blended-TPW data. This moisture and instability meanwhile is seen
    focusing along an elongated surface trough across the interior of
    the Southeast, which will provide a general focus for additional
    expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity going through
    the afternoon and early evening hours.

    There is also proximity of a weak mid-level shear axis over the
    Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic region which is helping to
    yield as much as 30 kts of effective bulk shear. This coupled with
    the instability may favor some locally stronger and persistent
    updrafts for more organized convection.

    Rainfall rates will be likely reaching 2.0 to 2.5 inches/hour with
    the stronger storms, and the cell-motions are expected to be
    relatively slow-moving which will potentially favor some scattered
    storm totals of 3 to 4+ inches.

    Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
    possible where these heavier rains focus, and this will include
    the more urbanized locations such as Columbia, SC and the
    Raleigh-Durham, NC vicinity.

    Orrison

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...
    RNK...

    ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 37937695 37897612 37177581 36107615 35027714
    34157866 33567985 32818169 32618318 33238391
    34278338 35128166 36247943
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