ACUS03 KWNS 020724
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes
will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent
mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon
Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream,
seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the
upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the
south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across
northern Quebec.

In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered
across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an
axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great
Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of
this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and
east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However,
it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to
the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may
advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday.

Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate
that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a
pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of
Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into
southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for
ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within
this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive
to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it
currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in
nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding
introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation
emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the
Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the
risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly
and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 170717
SWODY3
SPC AC 170717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and
perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday
night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will
prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified,
but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to
include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners.
Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast
Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations
pivoting around its periphery.

Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build
across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle
Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is
forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Gulf Coast.

Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is
likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow
will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and
contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly
cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow.

...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the
Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico,
may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further
weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly
conducive to severe storm development. However, with some
additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool
mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000
J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing
favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave
perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the
mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly
after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread
within the model output concerning this feature.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High
Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low.

...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an
open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate
eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the
southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued
surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very
modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley
anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly
move eastward along with the upper trough.

...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity...
A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account
of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential
for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather
cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until
mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold
enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could
support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the
mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe
weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally
severe hail are possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

$$
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