• Heavy Rain/Flooding NMex

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Aug 1 18:18:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 012034
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020233-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0777
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    434 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 012033Z - 020233Z

    Summary...Expanding convective coverage and increasing intensity
    suggests at least some flash flood threat likely exists this
    afternoon into evening over portions of northeast NM.

    Discussion...Convection is expanding in coverage and intensity
    across northeast NM over the past couple hours. Easterly post
    frontal upslope flow into the terrain is helping with convective
    initiation across this region. Meanwhile in the upper levels there
    is at least some upper level divergence over northeast NM within
    the right entrance region of a 300mb jet that is over CO and KS.
    Over the past 3 hours SBCAPE has increased by ~600 j/kg, with
    values now between 1500-2500 j/kg. Effective deep layer shear is
    around 20 kts, which may be just enough to help sustain some multi
    cell structure of convection through the afternoon hours.

    Given the favorable environment and recent uptick in convective
    growth per radar and satellite imagery, isolated to scattered
    instances of flash flooding appear probable through the afternoon
    hours. Expect this convection will be capable of locally dropping
    1-2" of rain within an hour and expect to see an increasing flash
    flood threat over the next several hours. The increasing
    convective coverage suggests some of the more sensitive burn scars
    in the region may be impacted, which could result in locally
    significant flood impacts.

    Chenard

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 37040432 37020365 36970312 36700300 35780303
    34970406 34640555 34810661 35130684 36320716
    36700700 36960602
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