• Severe Threat IL/IN/KY

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tue Jul 30 09:39:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 301409
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301409
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1742
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

    Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois and southern Indiana
    into north-central Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567...

    Valid 301409Z - 301615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a damaging wind risk will
    persist across southern Illinois within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    567. Areas across southern Indiana into adjacent north-central
    Kentucky are being monitored for possible downstream watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A small, but well organized bowing cluster of storms
    continues to track east/southeast across south-central Illinois this
    morning. This activity has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past
    hour. Around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes are likely sustaining
    organized activity as convection shifts east/southeast along an
    instability gradient oriented northwest to southeast across the
    lower Ohio Valley vicinity. A very moist downstream airmass is
    evident, with surface dewpoints in the 70s. With continued heating, boundary-layer inhibition is expected to quickly erode by midday.
    Damaging gusts may continue downstream of ongoing activity,
    especially if additional convection can develop on the southern
    flank of the ongoing cluster. Visible satellite imagery shows
    deepening cumulus ahead of the southern flank, so this evolution
    appears plausible. A downstream watch may be needed within the next
    hour or so if current trends persist/increase.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39868929 39908894 39748821 39118676 38488582 38088570
    37778619 37818688 37818706 37898751 38188845 38518908
    38968967 39358961 39868929
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