• DAY1 Enhanced Risk NY

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Wed Jul 10 07:18:00 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 100557
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 100555

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    NEW YORK...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage
    threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The
    greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New
    York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop
    across parts of New Mexico and west Texas.

    ...Northeast...
    The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower
    Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough
    moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move
    into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward
    into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of
    cells will move across southern and central New York this morning,
    with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the
    same general area.

    Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed
    toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the
    boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z
    for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
    350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50
    knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to
    mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast
    to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates
    peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for
    supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be
    within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to
    just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized
    in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window.

    The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front
    will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon,
    convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal
    trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms
    could be associated with isolated severe gusts.

    ...New Mexico/West Texas...
    A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of
    southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely
    range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures
    warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains,
    and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across
    southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the
    800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry
    adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for
    marginally severe gusts.

    ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024

    $$
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