• DAY1 Enhanced Risk KY/IN

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tue Jul 9 08:19:00 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 091237
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 091236

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

    Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
    KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Several tornadoes are possible today over the lower Ohio Valley in
    association with the remnants of Beryl.

    ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
    Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive mid-level
    shortwave trough moving east across the lower MO Valley/Ozarks.
    This mid-level trough is forecast to reach Lake Michigan/Indiana by
    late tonight. The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid
    Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated
    surface low, morning surface analysis indicates a reservoir of lower
    70s deg F dewpoints from the IN/OH/KY tri-state south/southwest into
    the Mid South ahead of the low. Surface streamlines show a warm
    frontal zone extending east-northeast from the low. The warm front
    will advance northward to near the OH River by mid afternoon and
    serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm potential.

    Despite considerable cloud cover this morning, significant cloud
    breaks south of the warm front and pockets of heating will
    destabilize the airmass from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley.
    Moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the warm
    front and to its south over parts of KY/TN. Models imply, and this
    notion is supported by morning observational trends, that a couple
    of convective bands will preferentially favor storm development
    today. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
    develop within a moderately unstable airmass (1000-1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE). Forecast hodographs will become enlarged --especially in
    the warm frontal zone where backed low-level flow will reside-- as a
    30-40 southerly 850-mb LLJ overspreads the OH Valley during the afternoon/evening. One or more bands of quasi-discrete supercells
    are forecast with tornado potential greatest in a southwest to
    northeast corridor paralleling the OH River this afternoon into the
    evening.

    ...New England...
    A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across
    Quebec and New England during the period. Heating of a seasonably
    moist airmass by afternoon will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient
    supercell or two, will pose an isolated risk for 50-65 mph gusts and
    large hail.

    ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/09/2024

    $$
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