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OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur
From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Oct 19 08:55:59 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 191144
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
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From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Oct 20 08:39:35 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
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From
Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Oct 21 09:38:17 2025
ABNT20 KNHC 211126
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be
developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up
to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while
it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the
next day or two. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this
week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
the system later today. For additional information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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