ACUS11 KWNS 162357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162356=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Mississippi
and western/central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 162356Z - 170200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity has tended to generally weaken the
past few hours. However, isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
development, potentially capable of producing tornadoes, remains
possible into this evening, mainly across parts of southeastern
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Trajectories emanating from surface ridging centered
over the southern mid- to subtropical western Atlantic continue to
maintain drier near-surface air as far west as southeastern into
central Alabama. At the same time, warm mid-level layers persist,
with some warming possible during the next few hours, in the wake of
one weak mid-level perturbation progressing northeastward toward the
Cumberland Plateau, within broader scale anticyclonic flow on the
northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridging. With the
upstream cold front advancing slowly eastward as well, the
pre-frontal plume of moist, potentially unstable boundary-layer air
is narrowing.

In conjunction with these trends, both the pre-frontal and frontal
thunderstorm development has tended to weaken during the past few
hours, and the remnant precipitation associated with the pre-frontal
convection is tending to stabilize the boundary-layer ahead of the
cold front. With cooling aloft generally lagging well to the west,
potential for substantive re-intensification of ongoing convection
seems low at the present time. However, wind fields remain at least conditionally supportive of supercells posing a risk for producing
tornadoes, and at least pockets of appreciable boundary-layer may
persist another couple of hours, particularly around the
Hattiesburg, MS area.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6U2fD0TJ7q4RJ6s4OAoIQ2-ar8nATetQDvUju0qNYS3L4w8sHnP-va7zSUUvGErAAOpJaUkl8= 7LSi0NFFHKDvQRRZiE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33408825 34148716 33638619 31888703 30538770 30188908
30959008 33408825=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)