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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0165

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 16 19:18:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 161918
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161917=20
    ALZ000-162045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0165
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0117 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 161917Z - 162045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will likely increase through the
    afternoon into this evening with supercells moving out of eastern
    MS. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 20z.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing across portions of central and southeastern
    MS, into portions of western AL. Additional warm-sector storms were
    forming along the MS/AL border region. Gradual intensification in
    lightning has been noted over the past couple of hours, suggesting a
    slow increase in severe potential. While storms have been slow to
    organize thus far, persistent mid-level mesocyclones within a moist,
    unstable and strongly sheared environment (100-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH)
    continue to suggest the possibility of tornadoes with supercell
    structures. Damaging wind gusts may also become a threat given the
    clustered nature of the current storms. With the potential for
    supercells to persist, and additional storms to develop, within the
    strongly sheared warm sector, a new Tornado Watch will be needed
    across parts of AL this afternoon.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5y32dEwv-vDWNU0vbRfBeTOLpCqSvZhepX9TCSDQ8SCONXKaY4HV1y1cKbidXzcFRLBurKh0h= LIT7NfARwHOh-184X8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32628836 33748824 34288808 34338641 34228597 33838581
    33448596 33078613 32348660 31228755 31218841 31918842
    32628836=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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