ACUS11 KWNS 101922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101922=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-102045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Areas affected...Northern FL peninsula and far southeastern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101922Z - 102045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of strong storms has moved onshore to the northern
Florida peninsula, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across
northern Florida and far southeastern Georgia. While a few damaging
gusts are possible, a weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery indicate that a line of stronger storms
has moved onshore, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across
far southeast Georgia and north Florida. These cells are in an
environment characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (30-35 kts of effective bulk
shear), per mesoanalysis and RAP profiles. The low-level wind shear
is relatively poor, with less than 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As the
afternoon progresses, expect some clustering and upscale growth
before storms move offshore. Given the poor low-level shear and some
modestly dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, these clusters may produce
a few damaging gusts. Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch
is not anticipated at this time.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 02/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PlqF4rUUhnqqsGB5_aCBB1sZMrvYM8_sKiEuNRz_yFRwTcLT3Dte0MnY8vzNqWhyq0IuJIQy= v61VUUylNiaBWaisYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29628146 29398209 29308282 29468335 29868368 30248346
30638286 30898231 31038208 31128157 30998143 30708134
30108124 29628146=20


=3D =3D =3D
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