1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0132

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 8 18:02:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 081802
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081801=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-082030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0132
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081801Z - 082030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears probable during the 18-21
    UTC time period. Storms will gradually intensify through late
    afternoon and may pose a severe risk heading into the evening hours.
    Trends will be monitored for a possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Continued air mass modification is evident in latest
    GOES-16 imagery across southern LA. Gradual clearing has allowed for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s amid an influx of upper
    60s dewpoints. This has yielding MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg
    per recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates, with further destabilization
    expected through late afternoon. This trend is confirmed by a recent
    18 UTC sounding from LIX, which sampled MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with
    minimal inhibition. 1-minute imagery reveals a few clusters of
    deeper cumulus across southern LA along weak confluence axes. These
    clusters are not yet evident in low-level water vapor or IR imagery,
    suggesting that deep convective initiation is still 1-2 hours away.
    However, latest high-res guidance suggests convective initiation
    across the destabilizing warm sector is probable during the 18-21
    UTC period, which is supported by the aforementioned observed
    trends. Given somewhat modest wind profiles over the warm sector
    (only 17 knots of effective bulk shear sampled by the 18 UTC
    sounding) and weak forcing for ascent, convection will likely be
    slow to mature. However, the approach of stronger forcing for ascent
    from the west combined with improving kinematic fields should
    support intensification during the late afternoon and evening hours.
    Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed as
    the severe potential increases.

    ..Moore/Kerr.. 02/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xz7V30Fwd4zJaQt2V4zh6QQ0A0bRjwu2VUngBwgkCBw1ceWG5Wn3aLfWxW35IFNoGSfYYMQV= DEnZd24-npWbbDUSms$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29889388 30299399 30909380 31309345 31439290 31389216
    31199105 30839010 30288980 29758972 29318986 29049025
    29099087 29309142 29449162 29529199 29529243 29609274
    29759327 29779365 29889388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)