ACUS11 KWNS 081749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081748=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...The Texarkana region into the mid-Mississippi River
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081748Z - 082015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a surface warm front may
pose a risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, this
afternoon. Watch issuance is possible as storms mature.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations show a surface warm front
gradually lifting north across southern AR into the mid-MS River
Valley. This trend will continue into the late afternoon hours as
strong low-level warm advection and synoptic ascent persist across
eastern OK and AR. Consequently, a northward expansion of the warm
sector is anticipated with mid to upper 60s dewpoints reaching into
southern AR/northwest MS by mid afternoon ahead of developing
thunderstorms across the Texarkana region along the cold front
and/or in the vicinity of the surface low. Despite veering
near-surface winds, strong flow in the 1-3 km layer combined with
40-50 knot flow aloft will support elongated low-level hodographs
favorable for organized convection. Storm motions and deep-layer
shear vectors oriented largely along the boundary should favor
thunderstorm clusters and/or linear segments capable of damaging
winds. A tornado threat may emerge with storms that can become
rooted in the boundary-layer along the surface warm front where
low-level helicity may be maximized. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and watch issuance is possible as storms begin to mature
and the severe risk becomes increasingly apparent.

..Moore/Kerr.. 02/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yg5ObnFiXYB5OAPgRCQb9VkA_Qq6VgDSwrDz29LSQLgbrZBDZrngVcVVrhE8qnR-Dz0ICDcS= 9WfOxkrUuVK7CCnPKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32279462 32719474 33129456 33589402 34569213 35499053
35568979 35228936 34568933 33838998 32969100 32639165
31889304 31819383 32049433 32279462=20


=3D =3D =3D
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