ACUS11 KWNS 082235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082234=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...southwest into central LA...southwest and central
MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 082234Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...As a mid-level disturbance pivots east towards the area
tonight, flow fields will intensify. It remains uncertain how
thunderstorm clusters will evolve, but a risk for severe will likely
increase into the evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed by
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of linear storms
and individual cellular storms across the lower MS Valley as of 430
pm (2230 UTC). This convection has developed likely in response to
increasing large-scale ascent and largely the removal of a capping
inversion (reference 19 UTC Lake Charles raob). The antecedent
convection will likely limit the overall buoyancy here forward since appreciable convective overturning has occurred in parts of
southwest MS and into parts of central and southern LA. However,
water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough pivoting east
across the southern Great Plains. The flow fields in the low to mid
levels are forecast to strengthen and this is currently being
observed at Lake Charles via the 88D VAD. Given this somewhat messy
convective scenario, it remains a bit uncertain when/where the more
intense storms will develop in the next 1-3 hours. Nonetheless, the environment will become increasingly favorable for severe storms
mainly via a tornado/damaging wind threat.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7e7ue_5AAASJi8jVIMKk8P75detIBBekF0-KLHu5hnf4BbxT1XPsh-oBXfqIcu-Rkir26xfbt= UMcowA6YLg0KQ6KmEA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31099345 31479201 31639139 33389045 33398933 32258925
30919037 30069160 29969252 30129315 31099345=20


=3D =3D =3D
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