ACUS11 KWNS 082023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082022=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-082145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Northeast LA and central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 082022Z - 082145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped supercells have developed in
northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. While not imminent,
trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...A few low-topped supercells with broad mid-level
rotation are visible from the KDGX radar. As sampled by mesoanalysis
and the KLIX 18Z sounding, these cells are in an environment with
weak to moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest
deep-layer shear (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). In the short term,
expect storms to produce some hail and perhaps a damaging gust or
two. At the moment, the modest low-level shear should keep the
tornado threat limited. However, the tornado potential will likely
increase into the late afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough
approaches the region and low-level/deep-layer shear gradually
increase. Watch issuance will probably not be needed in the near
term, but trends will be monitored for a watch later this afternoon.

..Supinie/Kerr.. 02/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9NpNI2F4txFiINggOEVLKCHc3Bf17bZPVsqv3DgEaAPgEMdNmsW_jqtN63CLBEVLyYPS0u6l8= KasadNfYk4U5Qbpj9U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30978948 30879059 31429137 31999143 32739122 33039068
32979010 32688936 32358895 31658907 30978948=20


=3D =3D =3D
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