ACUS11 KWNS 121920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121919=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-122115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 121919Z - 122115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase through the afternoon. Watch
issuance likely needed soon.

DISCUSSION...As of 19z, an established line of thunderstorms was
ongoing across portions of Alabama, with more discrete cells located
ahead of and south of the line in southwestern Alabama and
Mississippi. Across southeastern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle,
air mass destabilization from daytime heating has led to surface
based CAPE values around 1500 J/kg. KEOX (Ft. Rucker) has seen an
increase in 0-1km and 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the last few
hours as 850 mb flow has increased to around 40-50 kts. 0-1km storm
relative helicity is currently around 230 m2/s2. This environment is
expected to persist and will support the risk for tornadoes,
especially within any discrete cells that can maintain supercell characteristics ahead of the main line.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!980vD-2OzsxkXirROKQSNDOkiSQp2UyDjlCCvO9_lGU0hNzT63gSYwRIfTalXxYritrbe-jhO= D1PuSiiwX9j5bRYgDk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30618677 30988662 31288623 31608584 31978532 32168497
32228469 32188440 31958424 31578422 31208419 30908424
30598447 30388465 30238484 30128503 30048541 29998586
30208641 30618677=20


=3D =3D =3D
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