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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0059

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 20:06:56 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122006=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0059
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...

    Valid 122006Z - 122200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.

    SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an organized squall line is expected
    to continue over the next 1-2 hours across southern Alabama and the
    far western Florida Panhandle. However, a tornado threat will
    persist with supercells ahead of the line.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends from KMOB and GOES IR imagery show
    convection gradually intensifying along a cold front across far
    southeast MS into southwest AL. This trend is expected to continue
    to over the next 1-2 hours as the cold front pushes east into
    southern AL. Consequently, the potential for damaging winds may
    increase given 30-40 knot shear vectors in the 0-2 to 0-3 km layers
    orthogonal to the line. An embedded tornado threat may accompany the
    line if a segment of balanced outflow can become established and
    oriented meridionally.=20

    The relatively higher tornado threat will remain associated with
    isolated convection/supercells ahead of the line. A notable
    supercell, currently over Conecuh county, AL, has maintained an
    organized mesocyclone over the past hour and will continue to
    propagate to the east/northeast over an environment with favorable
    low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s) and 0-1 km SRH near
    200 m2/s2. Furthermore, supercell propagation vectors suggest this
    cell will remain ahead of the line for roughly the next 1-2 hours
    with relatively few storm interactions, which will aid in
    maintaining the tornado potential.

    ..Moore.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Mv6xWI0YTtQXKN8wpcpfb-a44utjEgcePD4PZ98nhSLQqd83qr1eABMCthuTk_Pn-cV6MR_f= 6OlL24WIB9C6glQi94$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30578856 31658785 31948707 31908587 31028608 30398651
    30228737 30098838 30578856=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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