ACUS11 KWNS 122002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122001=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...far east-central AL...west-central and north GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

Valid 122001Z - 122200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are
possible with the supercell-bow portion of the squall line. A risk
for a mesovortex tornado may accompany the bowing-remnant supercell
portion of the squall line.

DISCUSSION...A mature squall line extends from north GA
southwestward into south-central AL as of 20 UTC (3pm EST/2pm CST).=20
A long-lived supercell with a history of strong tornadoes has
recently become embedded within the QLCS to the north of a bowing
surge in the line. The airmass to the east over north GA is weakly
unstable (350 J/kg MLCAPE) according to the 18 UTC Atlanta, GA
observed sounding. Little airmass modification is expected during
the next 1-2 hours prior to squall line passage, thereby limiting
buoyancy. Nonetheless, the low- to mid-level flow is forecast to
continue to strengthen across north GA and KMXX has recently shown
an intensification in the 1-3 km flow during the past hour or so.=20
This additional strengthening of flow expected across north GA will
favor an increase in the risk for severe gusts. Current expectation
is a corridor of scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) will be possible
with the bow-remnant supercell inflection in the squall line as it
quickly moves northeast over the next several hours.

..Smith.. 01/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5yE9G6logxCjfAFjNxY1PUjLgUggbo88-PwD81nCM9UQcJ5HhrzayvNZXKVUTQe07Yb1A88qs= 5QDSyMAKvqjo53j9ow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 33208532 33768461 33688421 33478405 33148412 32778533
32818549 32958551 33208532=20


=3D =3D =3D
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