ACUS11 KWNS 121736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121736=20
ALZ000-121900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 121736Z - 121900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk will continue to focus over
central AL through 19 UTC (1pm CST). A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...KBMX radar imagery shows a pair of potentially tornadic
supercells over central AL with a history of tornadoes in Hale
County. Surface observation trends over southern AL indicate a
tendency for surface winds to veer to south-southwesterly with some
mixing (lowering) of surface dewpoints at several observation sites.
Farther north in the vicinity of Selma and east to Montgomery, these
limiting factors for low-level mesocyclones have not been observed,
hence a favorable environment for tornadoes remains across central
AL. The KBMX VAD has shown a marked intensification of low-level
flow over the past 1-2 hours which is enlarging the hodograph. With
the favorable embedded to quasi-discrete supercell storm mode being
maintained at least for the next 1-2 hours, expecting the tornado
risk to perhaps remain relatively high before eventual supercell to
squall line transition and destructive interference gradually lessen
the overall tornado risk.

..Smith.. 01/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82DzeHEGuYAF_Fi9dMc7ISydsgl0S-jrl-NqFQdcDz0VEoJtT7Arq8yyf6eApON0S-tyQRXeh= lVzNKdVaPjmWiNj6to$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32148765 32838727 32968712 33248617 33048611 32408655
32148765=20


=3D =3D =3D
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