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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0052

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 16:52:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121652
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121652=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-121745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0052
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1052 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...east central Alabama and western Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 121652Z - 121745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues along the eastern advancing line
    of storms which is expected to move into east central
    Alabama/Georgia later today.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to advance eastward
    through northern Alabama. Within this line, transient circulations
    have been noted on radar. Ahead of this line, the KMXX (Maxwell Air
    Force Base) VAD profile depicts 0-1 km storm relative helicity
    around 150-200 m2/s2. 15z RAOB from BMX indicates upstream 0-1km SRH
    around 300 m2/s2. The wind field over eastern Alabama/Georgia is
    expected to increase through the afternoon as flow aloft increases
    in the next few hours. RAP analysis shows 850 mb winds increasing to
    around 45-50 kts by 19-20z. Surface objective analysis indicates
    surface based CAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg across this region and the
    convective inhibition is reduced. This environment will continue to
    be conducive to tornado development within the line of storms, with
    the threat gradually spreading east through the afternoon. A Tornado
    Watch downstream of WW17 will likely be needed for portions of
    eastern Alabama and western Georgia this afternoon.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6j_yYk5hwPmI--sADmglRdSq39wb5ovRTuFc7Nedy8LZ_TPB2zvnfo269Cg47_g3dGtPgO7AP= n2SKDScWlVYH-kPpCY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32228624 32468645 32848643 33418613 33928581 34258553
    34608500 34648467 34618443 34608431 34468395 33988408
    33708415 33468428 33308438 33058449 32698472 32508486
    32178529 32108566 32118601 32228624=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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