ACUS11 KWNS 121238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121238=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-121445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...east-central Mississippi into central and northern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 121238Z - 121445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity across
Mississippi and continue into Alabama. A few tornadoes, damaging
gusts, and hail will all be possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage across the warm
sector, well ahead of the cold front and beneath cooling aloft over
MS. The 12Z JAN sounding shows moist profiles below 700 mb, and an
uncapped air mass with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s F. Although
SBCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg, temperatures aloft will continue to
cool as heating commences this morning across much of southern MS
and AL. As such, storms should strengthen with time, with increasing
rightward propagation/storm-relative inflow. Effective SRH over 200
m2/s2 will thus be realized later today, and will support supercells
with tornado risk. Long hodographs overall will support fast-moving
storms as well, with massing outflows resulting in damaging winds.
In addition, hail will be likely with the stronger/mature storms.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-C8rHk_3zq1lGduFafiK7dUE2KNy4LKjl8n8VsA06Svgy-ld-0CgrU9MJexf20nyILkmxqMin= Mwr_uSzdG3Bl9dPZ9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31788945 31778996 31959033 32259033 32629021 32709018
32998977 33748886 34588804 34898760 34858690 34548666
33888658 33338670 32888697 32098828 31788945=20


=3D =3D =3D
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