ACUS11 KWNS 250219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250218=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-250345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...southern Alabama...extreme
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 250218Z - 250345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 03z for portions of
the central Gulf Coast, including parts of southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Surface low has moved inland across south-central LA
and is forecast to track into west-central MS late this evening. LLJ
will also translate inland and focus over northeast MS/northwest AL
as the upstream low ejects toward the Arklatex. As a result,
low-level trajectories are becoming more favorable for modified Gulf
air mass to move onshore along the central Gulf Coast. Latest
observational data suggests mid 60s surface dew points are about 50
mi south of Pascagoula with upper 60s observed at buoy 42040. This
air mass should continue advancing inland and buoyancy will increase
across southern MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle over the next
several hours. While large-scale forcing is beginning to focus more
across the mid-south region, isolated supercells should continue to
evolve within the warm advection zone as it shifts east.
Additionally, frontal squall line will also surge east into this
region with embedded supercells. Tornado threat will increase as
surface dew points rise through the mid 60s. New tornado watch will
likely be issued by 03z.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 01/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0QwqJMk-_k_UK_NhK0eiyw9GkBCs5eUHxwARzvUcdPMpKa5sqCDYiR88XskiuvTFFOpDpQ1i= 05UHUIxlLELIvRIl58$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31248949 31068762 30608722 30108766 30288960 31248949=20


=3D =3D =3D
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