ACUS11 KWNS 241616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241616=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-241815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 241616Z - 241815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Environmental conditions along the middle/upper TX coast
into southwest LA will support supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes, this afternoon. A Tornado Watch will
be needed along the middle /upper TX coast to southwest LA within
the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles
northwest of NIR in northern Bea County TX. A warm front extends east-northeastward from this low through Galveston Bay and then off
the far southeast TX coast. The air mass south of this warm front is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s/upper 60s and dewpoints
in the mid/upper 60s. Expectation is for this front to gradually
lift northward as the surface low transitions east-northeastward. As
it does, modest surface-based buoyancy is anticipated across the
middle and upper TX coast.=20

Robust low-level wind fields are also in place, with mesoanalysis
estimating 50-60 kt at 850 mb from CRP vicinity northward into
southeast TX. Southeasterly surface winds exist throughout the warm
sector, resulting in strong low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD
profiles from CRP and HGX sampled 300 m2/s2 and 800 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.=20

Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated throughout the
afternoon, and these environmental conditions are expected to
support strong to severe thunderstorms. More linear development is
anticipated along the front south of the low, but some potential for
discrete warm-sector development exists as well. Any discrete storms
would likely become supercellular with the potential for all severe
hazards, including tornadoes. Given the strong low-level shear, a
strong tornado is possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are
also possible. As a result, a Tornado Watch will be needed along the middle/upper TX coast in far southwest LA.

..Mosier/Hart.. 01/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qA29EMkq7a07PBLl9FR7SIBmZVqVkcJUE2EwX7lbIu-9BDStQJTaxQSm7BgvG07X7XsM99Ji= DkbYXZvflP8WE8E9Yg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28929736 29229714 29649635 30309499 30459453 30529392
30519348 30389313 30069296 29839298 29799319 29769363
29669407 29489449 28879542 28489623 28149689 28099718
28229750 28519757 28929736=20


=3D =3D =3D
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