ACUS11 KWNS 240215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240214=20
NMZ000-240615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 240214Z - 240615Z

SUMMARY...A broad area of mixed precipitation is developing in
eastern NM. Snowfall rates exceeding 1"/hr are possible in the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...A broadening precipitation field is developing in
eastern NM in advance of a cut-off mid-level low currently centered
over southeast AZ. This precipitation is associated with a subtle
500-mb shortwave trough propagating through the broader low,
yielding a local maxima in 700-mb frontogenesis and low-level
ascent. Surface stations at lower elevations are currently reporting
moderate rain with surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
Conditions are expected to cool during the next couple of hours
amidst broad upslope flow, yielding a gradual transition from rain
to snow. Increased low-level forcing associated with the mid-level
shortwave (and broader cut-off low) should also support a steady
increase in precipitation rates. This evolution is supported by CAM
guidance suggesting that 1"/hr snowfall rates could evolve within
the next few hours, particularly from around 03-06z.

..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ucIUaHdV6n5xHCYGxA20ZnZIQD5wvP0ZPlZuynKfAcp1JwCOA3CDtYqUvQWYE_84jZSCYAiW= lm1OMTkJbRNxUPkFRc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33200577 34730566 35040496 34850404 34310362 33120358
32730412 32580530 33200577=20


=3D =3D =3D
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