ACUS11 KWNS 192322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192321=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New York into the New England region

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 192321Z - 200145Z

SUMMARY...Recent observations and numerical guidance suggest that a
mix of wintry precipitation types will likely be maximized over the
next 1-2 hours across eastern New York into parts of New England.
This may result in light freezing rain accumulations for some
locations.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and MPING reports from across
eastern NY into western MA indicate that a mixture of snow, rain,
sleet, and freezing rain is ongoing. Correlation coefficient data
from KTYX and KENX indicate that the warm nose sampled by the 21 UTC
ALB sounding remains firmly in place between 4-8 kft, which is
contributing to the wintry mix. This warm nose will persist for the
next several hours as mid-level warm advection continues ahead of
the approaching wave (currently over northeast IN/northwest OH).
Isentropic ascent along the mid-level warm frontal zone will also
maintain broad stratiform precipitation, which recent guidance
suggests will increase in coverage/intensity over the next 1-2
hours. This may result in areas of accumulating winter precipitation
for locations with surface temperatures currently below freezing or
that will fall below freezing in the coming hours via evaporative
cooling near the surface. This includes the potential for freezing
rain accumulations up to 0.1 inch and perhaps moderate snowfall
rates per latest guidance.

..Moore.. 01/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lBf8rY6rpngMnra1QrfbPwfOiKDJ2g1jFcK-9tKlsO7ZS9AuPSAMBsCZusDxkeXhyaPrCRrj= Yz-hz-gHr81w--NQZc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 41537356 41877412 42897440 43337478 43747549 44037639
44497642 45057531 45137434 45087341 44577283 43787191
43077141 42557186 42127224 41717284 41537356=20


=3D =3D =3D
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