ACUS11 KWNS 192150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192149=20
PAZ000-OHZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192149Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The highest potential for strong/severe winds gusts will
likely exist near the shore of Lake Erie in northeast Ohio. Limited
areal threat may preclude a separate downstream watch issuance.
However, additional coordination with WFO Cleveland will occur and
may result in local extension of WW 26.

DISCUSSION...Dry air continues to advect into eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Dewpoints are in the mid/upper 30s F with the
exception of near the Lake Erie shore where low/mid 40s F remain. A
couple of strong storms have recently developed in northwestern
Ohio. Going forward, strong forcing from the eastward propagating
shortwave trough will continue to bring potential for strong/severe
wind gusts. The threat will be constrained to areas where moisture
is greater which is currently along the lake shore. Given the
limited area of concern, a downstream watch is not currently
anticipated unless observational trends suggest a more organized
wind threat.

..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4G3fNLTw8VLjZgw5aRbe-sfqeJIh58MIPfbhAia0yOThe0_vmRsLTHECDi3rAG5s5-3Kx1952= DuhJWAMYmuS2h-5Yt8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41318233 41578203 41978098 41958045 41478018 41148023
40768084 40458187 40518213 41318233=20


=3D =3D =3D
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