ACUS02 KWNS 141636
SWODY2
SPC AC 141634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough over the western U.S. Sunday morning will shift
east into the Plains by early Monday morning. This will lead to
deepening lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains, with the
low tracking northeast toward the MO Valley overnight. Resulting
southerly return flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward,
but 60s F dewpoints will mainly be confined to the TX coast
vicinity. Nevertheless, modest boundary-layer moisture beneath
cooling temperatures aloft, and increasing ascent with the ejecting
mid/upper trough could foster a few lightning flashes near the
surface low across northwest MO/southwest IA and vicinity during the
overnight hours into early Monday morning. Warm temperatures just
above 850 mb will maintain a capping inversion during the period,
and despite moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low.

Isolated thunderstorms also will be possible Sunday
morning/afternoon across parts of the Four Corners as the mid/upper
trough ejects eastward. Another midlevel shortwave impulse and
surface low will impinge on the CA coast by early Monday morning,
and a few lightning flashes are possible as a front approaches the
coast toward the end of the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
northern Florida into southern Georgia and southern South Carolina
Sunday. A couple of tornadoes or damaging wind gusts are the main
severe threats.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will deepen while traversing
the eastern CONUS tomorrow/Sunday as a second upper trough amplifies
across the western U.S. Surface low development is expected along
the East Coast ahead of the eastern upper trough, encouraging modest
northward advection of low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico,
which is poised to overspread portions of northern Florida to the
Carolina Coastline. Weak buoyancy associated with this low-level
moisture, in tandem with deep-layer ascent driven by the approaching
upper trough, will encourage widespread showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the southeast U.S., with isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm development possible.

...Portions of the Southeast...
The aforementioned surface low should drift northeast toward the
Carolinas through the first half of the period, resulting in
southwesterly low-level flow across parts of northern FL into
southern GA and perhaps the coastline of the Carolinas. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms should already be underway across GA into
northern FL in the 12-16Z time frame. Southwesterly mid-level flow
from the positively-tilted upper trough overspreading low-level
southwesterly winds will support near-unidirectional vertical wind
profiles, but with plenty of speed-shear (with greater than 50 kts
of effective bulk shear likely). Given only modest low-level
curvature noted in point-forecast soundings, short linear segments
and a few embedded transient supercells are the most likely modes of
deep-moist convection from morning into the afternoon. Furthermore,
modest mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface
dewpoints should support thin MLCAPE values below 1000 J/kg across
southern GA and points south. During the afternoon, the strongest
925-850 mb flow should be shifting into the Carolinas, away from the
stronger buoyancy. Furthermore, the severe threat may be tempered by persistent, widespread convection across the eastern Gulf Coastal
region from late Day 1 into the morning Day 2. As such, a brief
window of opportunity may exist for a few of the stronger, more
organized storms to produce a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two across northern FL into southern GA and southern SC,
where a relatively favorable buoyancy/low-level shear overlap may
materialize during the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 01/21/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191643
SWODY2
SPC AC 191641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the middle Texas Coast into
southern Louisiana mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...
A prominent upper low will move across the Four Corners area and
toward the central High Plains by 12Z Saturday, with a broad belt of
strong mid to high level flow from the southern Plains to the Mid
Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a stable air mass will exist due to
high pressure extending from the Pacific Northwest across the Plains
and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, a stationary front will
extend roughly from Brownsville TX to Tampa FL. Minimal northward
progress of this boundary is forecast Friday night, with a stable
surface air mass remaining along the immediate Gulf Coast.

Rain is expected to expand in coverage across the middle to upper TX
Coast during the afternoon as moistening occurs aloft, with very low
chances of any lightning due to warm midlevel temperatures/poor
lapse rates. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will exist
overnight into southern LA. Here, forecast soundings show a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE rooted just above 850 mb, and while strong
deep-layer shear will exist, poor lapse rates should preclude any
severe hail threat.

Elsewhere, scattered convective showers may occur over parts of the
Four Corners region and across northern NM during the afternoon, as
heating contributes to very weak instability beneath steep lapse
rates aloft. However, sporadic flashes with this weak convection is
expected to remain below the general thunderstorm outlook threshold.

..Jewell.. 01/19/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201706
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. on Saturday.
General thunderstorms are likely across the Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will progress eastward across the
central U.S. with a strengthening midlevel jet from TX into the OH
Valley through 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a compact shortwave trough
will dive southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, providing
cooling aloft and lift.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East, with
another centered over the Great Basin. A weak inverted trough is
forecast to develop from central OK into TX, but the boundary layer
will remain stable as appreciable moisture remains over the Gulf of
Mexico.

Although stable at the surface across the Southeast, positive
theta-e advection will occur around 850 mb, resulting in lift and
elevated MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. As a result, widespread rain and
thunderstorms are likely, beginning over LA during the day and
spreading eastward overnight. At this time, it is most likely that
SBCAPE remains offshore, limiting any tornado potential.

Despite strong deep-layer shear across the region, forecast
soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft. As such, severe hail is
not forecast.

..Jewell.. 01/20/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231739
SWODY2
SPC AC 231738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the middle to upper Texas
Coast Tuesday afternoon, spreading into parts of southeastern
Louisiana and across coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several
tornadoes are anticipated, with a conditional threat of a strong
tornado.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will move eastward from northern TX during the day
into the middle MS Valley by 12Z Wed. Leading this trough will be a
80-100 midlevel jet streak, with extreme 70+ kt 850 mb wind fields
translating east across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, low
pressure will develop across southeast TX during the day, pivoting
northeast across LA and AR overnight. Meanwhile, a warm front will
extend east from the low, with mid 60s F dewpoints south of the
Houston area. This front will lift north of I-10 in LA after 00Z,
with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints eventually overspreading southeast
LA, and the coastal counties of MS, AL, and the western FL
Panhandle. A cold front will surge east across the northern Gulf
coast states immediately behind the warm front, resulting in a
limited warm sector.

...Middle and upper TX Coast - Daytime...
Rain and elevated storms will rapidly expand across central TX
during the day, with intensification occurring over south-central
into southeast TX as the warm sector develops northward. Storms are
forecast to become severe after 18Z along the cold front, and warm
front intersection where a surface low will develop. Here, dewpoints
are expected to be sufficient for surface-based storm inflow, with
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Shear profiles will be extreme, with
effective SRH over 500 m2/s2 and near 800 m2/s2 along the warm front
south of the Houston area. Supercells will be likely along the
developing line of storms near the cold front, and a favored area
for strong tornadoes will be as this lift intersects the warm front.
Heating is unlikely given the early moisture return and saturated
boundary layer, but the extreme shear warrants an outlook for
isolated strong tornadoes.

...Southern LA...MS...AL...FL Panhandle - Evening and Overnight...
A squall line is forecast to move across the Sabine River around
00Z, progressing across LA and into MS through 06Z. The degree of
severe risk will be closely tied to boundary-layer destabilization,
and southern parts of the line across southern LA may weaken with
time. Damaging winds appear most likely with much of the line, but
southern parts of the line will have better access to more unstable
air, with conditional tornado risk. SBCAPE will eventually exceed
500 J/kg, with extreme SRH of 400-800 m2/s2 coincident with positive
SBCAPE.

Additional supercells with tornado threat may develop after 09Z near
the warm front/ahead of the cold front from southern AL into the FL
Panhandle, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible with
MLCAPE > 500 J/kg moving onshore.

..Jewell.. 01/23/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240600
SWODY2
SPC AC 240559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will accompany showers
and thunderstorms overspreading much of the southern Atlantic Coast
states Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

...Synopsis...
While a mid-level subtropical high maintains strength across the Caribbean/Bahamas vicinity, a deep mid-level low of Arctic origins
may continue to redevelop southwestward toward the Hudson Bay
vicinity during this period, as a vigorous short wave impulse digs
around its western through southern periphery. At the same time,
within persistent large-scale eastern Pacific riding, another
prominent mid-level high is forecast to form, at higher latitudes
than the preceding one, to the west of the northern U.S. Pacific
coast. Downstream of this regime, a couple of digging impulses will
maintain mid-level troughing across the Four Corners states, while a
much more vigorous perturbation, initially over the Mid South
vicinity, continues accelerating east-northeastward.

As the lead perturbation approaches the lower Great Lakes/Mid
Atlantic Wednesday through Wednesday night, it may gradually become
absorbed within larger-scale troughing evolving to the south of the
Arctic low. An initial associated surface cyclone is forecast to
continue to deepen across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great
Lakes, while secondary cyclogenesis commences from the lee of the
southern Appalachians through the northern Mid Atlantic and southern
New England coasts by 12Z Thursday. It still appears that there
will be coinciding substantive further intensification of a
west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, including speeds of 100-120 kt
around 500 mb, across the eastern Gulf through southern/middle
Atlantic Coast states and southern New England. A 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly jet around 850 mb likely will shift through
Georgia and the Carolinas through midday Wednesday, before continue
to propagate across the middle and northern Atlantic coast through
the remainder of the period.

...South Atlantic Seaboard...
Within the evolving warm sector of the cyclone, it appears that
boundary-layer moisture characterized by dew points in excess of 60F
will overspread much of the southern through middle Atlantic
Seaboard, in the presence of the intense deep-layer mean wind fields
and vertical shear. It still appears that lower/mid-tropospheric
lapse rates will remain generally weak. However, aided by an
initially better influx of moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico, a pre-frontal squall line (expected to be ongoing early Wednesday) may
maintain a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes across at least
southeastern Alabama, central/southern Georgia, and the remainder of
the Florida Panhandle into parts of northern Florida.

Thereafter, perhaps after a period of diminishing convective trends,
increasing mid/upper forcing for ascent may support a gradual
intensification of convection in a pre-cold frontal band across
parts of the Carolina Piedmont into the southern Mid Atlantic coast.
It is not entirely clear how much of this activity will be capable
of producing lightning due to relatively warm mid-levels. However,
a number of models are now increasingly suggestive that initially
stable near-surface lapse rates may trend neutral to weakly unstable
prior to the arrival of this activity. Given the size of the
forecast low-level hodographs, including modest clockwise curvature
and mean speeds in excess of 50 kt in the lowest couple of
kilometers above ground level, the environment may become conducive
to damaging gusts reaching the surface, and a risk for tornadoes.

The potential for tornadoes could increase as the convection and
associated forcing for ascent encounter increasingly moist low-level
inflow off the Atlantic, which may support intensifying convection,
including supercells, across the North Carolina coast/Outer Banks
region Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 01/24/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for damaging winds will exist across parts of the Southeast
on Wednesday. Isolated tornadoes will be possible over the eastern
Carolinas by late afternoon, and from the Florida Panhandle into far
southwest Georgia early in the day.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will exist over much of the central and
eastern CONUS on Wednesday, with a strong leading wave moving from
the OH Valley into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Low pressure
will move from KY into OH during the day, with a cold front pushing
east toward the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift
rapidly north across GA and the Carolinas, with 60s F dewpoints.
Warm advection will be aided by a strong 50-70 kt low-level jet
overspreading the warm sector.

...FL Panhandle into southern GA...
Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front near the AL/GA
border and into the Gulf of Mexico. MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist early Wednesday, with SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 common. This
will support a tornado risk, as well as damaging winds with the
line. As the main upper system lifts away, the primary tornado risk
is expected to maximize in the 12Z to 18Z time frame, with less
SBCAPE farther east into northern FL. Still, a few severe gusts may
occur during the afternoon as the frontal convection shifts east and boundary-layer wind speeds remain strong. Midlevel lapse rates will
become poor, limiting storm severity.

...Carolinas...
A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will stream northward off the
Atlantic and into the eastern Carolinas during the afternoon as a
line of convection approaches from the west. These storms are
expected to increase in intensity as they encounter the higher
dewpoints, resulting in severe wind and tornado potential, perhaps
in QLCS fashion. Effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 is expected over
eastern NC. Forecast soundings suggest dewpoints at or above 65 will
clearly support surface-based inflow.

..Jewell.. 01/24/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121728
SWODY2
SPC AC 121727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida
Peninsula and parts of California Friday, but severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S.
Friday, as a trough over the East maintains intensity as it moves
slowly toward the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough
-- within a broader area of cyclonic flow over the eastern Pacific
-- will move inland and weaken with time, though additional/embedded
short-wave troughing offshore will maintain the overall amplitude of
the cyclonic pattern. In between the two troughs, sharp ridging
will move eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains through
the end of the period.

As the eastern upper trough advances, a surface cold front --
trailing from a deep low moving northeastward across New England --
will quickly clear the middle and southern Atlantic Coast region
early in the day. The trailing portion of this front will move
steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the day,
likely clearing south Florida and the Keys by early evening.

Ahead of this front, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely
shift southward across Florida during the day. Though a stronger
storm cannot be ruled out, any severe potential appears to be quite
low -- insufficient to warrant inclusion of any severe-weather
probabilities.

Elsewhere, the only other potential for thunder evident within the
CONUS will be across the northern and central California coastal
areas, and possibly into the central Valley, as the aforementioned,
weakening short-wave trough moves inland.

..Goss.. 01/12/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130634
SWODY2
SPC AC 130632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over the
Carolinas early Saturday morning, with upper ridging to its west
over the Plains and additional troughing along the West Coast. Upper
pattern is expected to be fairly progressive, with the mid-latitude
cyclone moving off the East Coast and the upper ridging continuing
eastward through the MS Valley. Upper troughing will persist west of
the Rockies, as a lead shortwave trough moves eastward across the
Four Corners region during the day and another shortwave moves
across the central CA coast during the evening.

Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this second wave,
contributing to the potential for isolated lightning flashes across
northern and central CA, particularly during the evening. Dry and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the
CONUS.

..Mosier.. 01/13/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131627
SWODY2
SPC AC 131626

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Atlantic coast states
Saturday morning, with a ridge over the Plains and another trough
over the eastern Pacific/West Coast vicinity. This pattern will be
fairly progressive, with the wave train shifting east through the
period. This will bring a trough inland over the western U.S., with
a fairly intense jet streak oriented over southern CA into the Lower
CO Valley vicinity by Sunday morning.

As the Pacific trough moves inland, cooling midlevel temperatures
will offer meager instability over parts of CA, and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the late morning into the
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/13/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140619
SWODY2
SPC AC 140617

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the Four
Corners region and into the central Plains from Sunday morning into
early Monday morning. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of
second, more substantial shortwave, with a low developing over
southeast CO Sunday afternoon before then moving northeastward into
northeast KS by Monday morning. Moderate to strong low-level flow
will precede this shortwave and associated surface low, with the
strongest mass response anticipated Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Despite this strong low-level return flow, the quality of
the low-level moisture will be limited by a previous frontal
intrusion. As such, 60s dewpoints will likely remain confined to the
TX Coast, while mid 50s dewpoints reach into the ArkLaTex.

Isolated lightning flashes appear possible within this warm air
advection regime in the vicinity of the OK/AR/MO border
intersection. Additional lightning flashes are possible farther
north, closer to the surface low, where forcing for ascent will be
stronger and cooler mid-level temperatures will be in place. Strong
vertical shear is anticipated throughout the region from eastern
OK/western AR into northwest MO/southwest IA, but warm mid-level
temperatures and modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential
very low.

Farther west, isolated lightning flashes are possible throughout the
day amid the persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level
temperatures from northern AZ/southern UT into the Four Corners.
Additionally, another shortwave trough is expected to move into
northern CA late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures may result in isolated
updrafts capable of lightning, particularly early Monday morning.

..Mosier.. 01/14/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040653
SWODY2
SPC AC 040652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday with a developing surface low moving from the western
Caribbean to the southern Florida Peninsula during the period. A
stronger mid-upper level trough will move into the western CONUS
which could bring some thunderstorms to portions of coastal northern
California and the Sierra.

...Southeast Florida...
Low-level theta-e will increase amid southerly flow across the
southern Florida Peninsula which will lead to increasing buoyancy
Sunday afternoon. The primary mass response will be farther east,
across the Gulf Stream which is where the majority of storm activity
is expected. Some thunderstorm activity may occur along the
sea-breeze near the coast and could become organized given 35 to 40
knots of effective shear. However, westerly mid-upper level flow
should promote activity quickly moving offshore. In addition, the
NAM and ECMWF show quite extensive cloud cover which may weaken the
sea breeze circulation and make thunderstorm development less
likely. Therefore, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
southern Florida could support some severe weather, but storm
coverage remains questionable. Marginal severe weather probabilities
will not be added at this time.

In California, cool temperatures aloft may provide ample instability
for a few thunderstorms in coastal regions of northern California.
In addition, some weak instability may develop within the central
Valley and into the Sierra foothills where orographic enhancement
may increase thunderstorm potential.

..Bentley.. 02/04/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041653
SWODY2
SPC AC 041652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the western states on Sunday,
taking on a positive tilt overnight across the Four Corners states.
Strong cooling aloft will occur north of the midlevel jet max during
the day over northern CA and NV, and heating may lead to weak
instability. Scattered convective showers and a few thunderstorms
are anticipated over coastal northern CA, and from the central
valleys into the Sierra where westerly upslope may aid lift. Severe
weather is unlikely due to weak low-level wind fields, however, cold
air aloft may support graupel.

Elsewhere, rain showers and a few thunderstorms may occur over parts
of the FL Peninsula, where weak lift may develop in association with
an upper trough extending south into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Mid 60s F dewpoints and heating will lead to weak instability, but
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm strength. The
veering low-level jet will likely focus most of the convection over
the Atlantic Ocean as well.

..Jewell.. 02/04/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050547
SWODY2
SPC AC 050546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Positive-tilt upper trough will move steadily east across the
central U.S. Monday as a downstream upper trough over the eastern
U.S. moves offshore during the day. Generally dry/stable conditions
will exist over much of the CONUS, with the exception of the
southern/central plains.

Low-level moist/warm advection will develop over the southern Plains
in advance of a cold front and as the upper trough approaches, and
surface dew points by afternoon will range from the lower 50s across
eastern OK to the mid/upper 50s over central/south TX. Scattered
showers will be possible mainly Monday night aided by warm advection
and modest height falls. Deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggest instability will remain meager at best, and generally too
low to support lightning potential through 12z Tuesday.

..Bunting.. 02/05/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051634
SWODY2
SPC AC 051633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will exit the East Coast on Monday while a
larger-scale positive-tilt upper trough moves from the Rockies into
the Plains. A surface ridge will extend from eastern Canada into the
USA, resulting in offshore flow over the East Coast and dry
trajectories into the Gulf of Mexico. While some low-level moisture
return will occur into TX overnight ahead of the upper trough, the
air mass will remain strongly capped with little to no instability.
As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

..Jewell.. 02/05/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060702
SWODY2
SPC AC 060700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and night across portions of east/southeast Texas to
Louisiana and possibly southwest Mississippi.

...East/Southeast Texas and Louisiana/Southwest Mississippi...
A positive-tilt upper-level trough is expected to spread eastward
from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Air mass modification and low-level moistening will occur
across central/eastern Texas toward the ArkLaMiss region in advance
of a cold front spreading generally southeastward across the
southern Plains and Ozarks.

While cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent within the warm sector,
sufficient moistening/weak destabilization should allow for
thunderstorms to increase, particularly toward/after sunset across
central/east Texas near the advancing front. Although questions
exist regarding the exact degree of surface-based destabilization, a
few severe storms could occur during the evening across parts of
central/east Texas in the presence of increasingly strong
deep-layer/low-level shear. This would include the potential for
locally damaging winds and/or a tornado.

Farther east, at least a low/conditional-type severe risk may
develop late Tuesday night/early Wednesday into and across portions
of Louisiana and possibly southwest Mississippi. This would be as
the surface cyclone modestly deepens over the Ozarks and increasing
low-level moisture develops northward across this region,
potentially in a sufficient quantity to be conducive for a
near-surface-based severe risk, with locally damaging winds and/or a
tornado possible.

..Guyer.. 02/06/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061711
SWODY2
SPC AC 061709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening
and overnight across portions of east/southeast Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted, mid-level trough will move from the Southwest
to the Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Tuesday night, this trough
will start to become negatively-tilted which will increase mass
response and low-level flow across east Texas. At the surface, an
area of low pressure will deepen and move toward northeast Texas as
a cold front advances southeast.

...Southeast and East Texas...
Low-level moisture will stream north across east Texas on Tuesday,
but heating should be limited due to expansive cloud cover. Warm
mid-level temperatures will therefore keep the atmosphere mostly
capped through the day. Tuesday evening and into the overnight
period, mid-level temperatures begin to cool as the upper-level
trough moves east and becomes more negatively tilted. This should
make thunderstorms more likely late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning in a region of strengthening isentropic ascent
across east Texas. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a capped warm
sector which should limit most storm development away from the cold
front which is expected to remain in east Texas prior to 12Z
Wednesday. The 12Z NAM is now slower with the surface low
development, following the trend of both the ECMWF and GFS.
Therefore, the conditional threat across Louisiana during the Day 2
period is unlikely and therefore, the marginal risk has been
removed.

Updraft strength will likely remain limited due to weak instability
(~500 J/kg) and only modest shear (~30 knots). The stronger
mid-level flow is expected to remain north of the cold front Tuesday
night. However, greater instability, potentially as high as 1000
J/kg, is possible farther south where a few stronger storms could
occur. Relatively weak thermodynamic profiles and modest shear
should preclude the hail threat with damaging wind gusts as the
primary concern through 12Z Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 02/06/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070706
SWODY2
SPC AC 070704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for
damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley...
A shortwave trough and an increasingly strong polar jet will spread northeastward on Wednesday from the south-central Plains/Ozarks
toward the Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass
across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will potentially
be semi-persistent factors near/ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday. However, the pre-convective warm sector will
progressively moisten and cloud breaks should allow for modest
diurnal destabilization across Louisiana into Mississippi and
southern/eastern Arkansas. Some semi-discrete storms/supercells will
be possible, but the modest prevalent scenario of convection may be quasi-linear bands with some embedded bows near the effective front.
Damaging winds should be the most likely hazard along with the
potential for a few tornadoes. The severe risk should develop toward
eastern portions of Mississippi/Louisiana by Wednesday evening, and
possibly reach western Alabama and/or western Tennessee later
Wednesday night.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
The steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and
related deepening phase (potentially reaching -1 mb/hr) of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from the Ozarks to the
Midwest could influence a strongly forced low-topped convective line
across the region Wednesday night. Concern exists for the potential
of convectively enhanced wind gusts, possibly with little or no
lightning flashes, even in the presence of minimal instability with
northward extent. Given a pronounced nocturnal strengthening of
deep-layer winds (highlighted by 100+ kt mid-level jet), along with
steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities appear
warranted even with thermodynamic uncertainties/limitations.

..Guyer.. 02/07/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071730
SWODY2
SPC AC 071728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for
damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted Wednesday morning
across the southern High Plains and move northeast to near the
Ozarks by 06Z Thursday. A surface low will develop along a front in
eastern Texas Wednesday morning and deepen as it moves northward
into the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
As the surface low deepens during the day Wednesday, low-level flow
will strengthen and advect moisture northward across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Mid 60s dewpoints may advect as far north as
southern Arkansas/northern Mississippi by Wednesday evening. The
warm sector will be mostly capped Wednesday morning, but inhibition
is expected to erode by mid day as mid-level temperatures cool ahead
of the advancing trough. Despite the uncapped warm sector, most CAM
guidance has limited convection across Louisiana during the day. The
ECMWF has more widespread convection Wednesday afternoon and seems
like the more likely solution given the height falls and the
uncapped warm sector by early afternoon. However, these storms may
remain more multi-cellular and only marginally severe as warm sector
effective shear is only expected to be 20-25 knots during the day.

Most guidance shows a low-level wave moving northward across the
western Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This can be seen in both PWAT and
850mb wind fields and appears to be the impetus for western Gulf
convection, apparent on most guidance. As this feature moves into
eastern Louisiana/western Mississippi Wednesday evening, expect a
more concentrated convective risk to develop along the I-20 corridor
from eastern Louisiana to central Mississippi. Most guidance shows
the low-level jet strengthening from 35 to 55 knots between 23Z and
04Z which will elongate hodographs across the warm sector. During
this period, convergence is forecast to increase along the cold
front and ascent associated with the mid-level trough is expected to
overspread the warm sector. A greater tornado threat could persist
from evening to early overnight, both from any pre-frontal
supercells and any line embedded supercells/QLCS vorticies
associated with the front.

Damaging winds will also be possible with the developing squall line
during this period as some residual instability remains before this
line moves east of the better instability after 06Z near the Alabama/Mississippi Line. Given the strong wind field, some marginal
severe wind threat could persist into Alabama early Thursday
morning, but limited instability should mitigate a greater threat.

..Bentley.. 02/07/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080658
SWODY2
SPC AC 080657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the
Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia, as
well as the Midwest including Indiana and Ohio.

...Southeast States including parts of Florida/Georgia/Alabama...
Weakening bands of convection and related cloud debris will likely
exist across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Thursday
morning. The brunt of the Midwest-centered upper trough will quickly
shift northeastward away from the region, but weak height falls will
occur while a belt of strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds will
tend to lag the cold front.

This cold front should decelerate and eventually stall across the
Southeast into Thursday night, but scattered thunderstorms will tend
to persist eastward and/or redevelop within the diurnally
destabilizing warm sector, particularly in areas within 75-100 miles
of the Gulf of Mexico. This is the most probable corridor for where
isolated severe storms could occur Thursday. This could potentially
include a few supercells/small bows capable of wind damage and/or a
brief tornado risk across northern Florida/southern Alabama into
southern Georgia.

...Midwest/Middle Ohio River Valley...
Have introduced low wind-related severe probabilities for the region
mainly for Thursday morning. A fast-northeastward-moving low-topped
convective line should be located across eastern
Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky around sunrise Thursday morning.
Pre-frontal dewpoints into the lower 50s F should be enough to yield
very weak surface-based buoyancy, which should be sufficient to
sustain some of the ongoing semi-organized low-topped convection.
Given the extremely strong low/mid-tropospheric winds (75+ kt at
850-700 mb), convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur, even with
little/if any lighting flashes, and at a time when boundary layer
stability tends to be maximized. The convective line and
convectively enhanced wind gust potential may quickly develop
east-northward across Ohio and toward the Lake Erie vicinity through
midday.

..Guyer.. 02/08/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081724
SWODY2
SPC AC 081723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the
Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia, as
well as the Midwest including Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will move
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Meanwhile,
the larger-scale positively tilted trough will amplify across the
central CONUS and into the Southern Plains. A ~1000mb surface low is
expected to be located in the vicinity of central Illinois at 12Z
Thursday. This surface low is expected to maintain its intensity
around 1000 mb as it moves northeast into southern Ontario by
Thursday evening. A cold front will trail this surface low and could
be the focus for severe convective wind gusts across portions of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the day Thursday. Farther south along
the cold front, limited forcing should keep thunderstorm activity
minimal in eastern Tennessee/Kentucky. However, more robust
convection is expected across portions of the Southeast where
low-level Gulf moisture should provide ample instability for a few
strong to severe storms amid broad, weak ascent.

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
An unseasonably moist low-level airmass will be present ahead of the
cold front Thursday morning with a HREF ensemble mean dewpoint in
the mid 50s across eastern Indiana. This will result in low-level
buoyancy along and ahead of the cold front Thursday morning. In
fact, convection will likely remain quite shallow with forecast
soundings showing an equilibrium below 3km. However, strong forcing
from frontal convergence and dCVA across the region should lead to a
fast moving broken line of convection during the day. Lightning is
unlikely with this activity due to its shallow nature, but
convection along the cold front could bring strong to potentially
severe winds to the surface given the 70-75 knot 1km flow across the
region. Extensive cloud cover and minimal boundary layer heating
should keep mixing depth shallow. However, if even brief clearing
can occur ahead of the front with some boundary layer heating, a
greater threat for severe wind gusts will likely occur. If this were
to occur, it would be most likely across portions of north-central
and northeast Ohio where some CAM guidance suggests some clearing
could occur during peak heating.

...Gulf Coast from far southeast Mississippi to southwest
Georgia/Florida Panhandle...
Remnant Gulf moisture with low to mid 60s dewpoints will remain
ahead of the cold front across southeast Mississippi on Thursday
morning. This best moisture will only extend around ~75 miles inland
and therefore the marginal severe weather threat will be confined to
areas in closer proximity to the coast. The cold front will move
slowly east across this region during the day before stalling by
Thursday afternoon across the central Florida Panhandle. Weak height
falls across the region and convergence along the front should be
sufficient for storm development during the day. A few strong to
severe storms are possible, including the potential for supercell
structures given 35-40 knots of effective shear. However, weak
instability (400-700 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak lapse rates (~ 6 C/km)
will foster a thermodynamic environment which is less than favorable
for a more widespread threat. The primary threats will be damaging
winds from any supercell structures or bowing segments which
develop. In addition, a tornado or two is possible given the
significant directional shear in the lowest 1km, but the relatively
weak flow in this layer (less than 25 knots) and the aforementioned
limited thermodynamic environment should mitigate the overall
tornadic threat.

..Bentley.. 02/08/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast on
Friday including northern Florida, southeast Alabama and
southern/eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina.

...Southeast States...
A positive-tilt upper-level trough will move east-southeastward from
the southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley through
Friday night. A preceding cold front will be located from the
coastal Mid-Atlantic States southwestward across the Carolinas into Georgia/northern Florida Friday morning. A moist air mass with 60s F
surface dewpoints is expected to be in place ahead of the front,
especially across Florida into parts of Georgia/southern South
Carolina.

While the boundary layer will be relatively moist, overall
destabilization is currently expected to be muted by some lingering
cloud cover as well as weak mid-level lapse rates. Even so, weak destabilization in the presence of 40+ kt effective shear may be
conducive for a few severe thunderstorms through Friday afternoon,
which could include locally damaging winds and/or a tornado.

..Guyer.. 02/09/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091701
SWODY2
SPC AC 091700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible mainly from southern
Georgia into northern Florida on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough over the Plains will shift east,
breaking into a cut-off low over the lower MS Valley and a
progressive shortwave across the Northeast. At the surface, high
pressure will surge south across the western Gulf of Mexico with a
weak surface trough from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern
Carolinas during the afternoon. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will
exist ahead of this surface trough, with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms over southern AL, GA and the FL Panhandle Friday
morning.

Given ongoing precipitation, low-level lapse rates will be poor, and
only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop from
northern FL into southern GA. Modest deep-layer shear will exist
beneath a southwesterly flow regime, which may aid storm longevity
in some cases. Overall, the severe risk appears low, but veering
winds with height within the weak forcing regime may support a
brief/weak tornado or a few strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 02/09/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100638
SWODY2
SPC AC 100636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday and Saturday evening.

...FL...
A mid-level low initially near the TX/LA border will migrate
eastward along the central Gulf Coast to GA by early Sunday morning.
In the low levels, a front will be draped from southwest to
northeast across the eastern Gulf through north FL and into the Gulf
Stream to the east of the FL/GA coast. A cyclone is forecast to
develop northeastward along the boundary and move from the northeast
Gulf to north FL by early evening and subsequently to the SC shelf
waters by daybreak Sunday.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast near and
north of the front on Saturday morning. Cloud breaks and heating
during the day will destabilize the airmass across the northern and
central parts of the FL Peninsula. Surface dewpoints are expected
to range in the middle 60s immediately south of the boundary and the
upper 60s farther south near the I-4 corridor. Strengthening flow
in the low to mid levels by late afternoon will result in
lengthening hodographs and the potential for storm organization.
Uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary and
possible modulating effects of convection influencing the amount of destabilization prior to mid-late afternoon. As the surface low
reaches by the Big Bend region of FL by late afternoon/early
evening, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible and a tornado/damaging-wind risk
may accompany these storms, before the activity moves offshore
and/or weakens by the late evening owing to waning instability.

..Smith.. 02/10/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101702
SWODY2
SPC AC 101700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into northern Florida Saturday and Saturday evening.

...Florida Panhandle/Northern Florida...
An upper low will deepen Saturday as it travels from the Sabine
Valley to the central Gulf Coast by 00Z, reaching GA by Sunday
morning. A cyclonically curved 100 kt midlevel speed max ahead of
the low and strong height falls will overspread GA/FL after 00Z as
850 mb winds increase to over 40 kts. Meanwhile, a surface low will
gradually deepen over the northeastern Gulf and FL Panhandle late in
the day, with a stalled front over northern FL. A cold front will
also push east across the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the western FL
Peninsula after 00Z.

Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are most likely over the land portion
of the warm sector, with relatively cool surface temperatures due to
ongoing precipitation and clouds. The eastern FL Panhandle portion
of the boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front during the
day just ahead of the low, resulting in SBCAPE over 500 J/kg over
coastal counties. As such, ongoing storms along the intersecting
cold front may pose a tornado risk during the day as cells move
onshore, especially if surface temperatures can approach 70 F.

As the more unstable air continues to push north, a tornado risk may
translate eastward across northern FL near and after 00Z. By 06Z,
much of the large-scale lift will pivot northeast of the area where
the air mass will be too stable for severe storms.

..Jewell.. 02/10/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110615
SWODY2
SPC AC 110613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPE LOOKOUT AND
CAPE HATTERAS...

...SUMMARY...
A locally severe thunderstorm may affect Cape Lookout and Cape
Hatteras Sunday morning.

...NC Outer Banks...
A potent mid-level low initially over GA will move east-northeast
and offshore the NC coast during the period. A surface low is
forecast to be near Cape Fear early Sunday morning and it will
largely parallel the coast during the morning. A
moistening/destabilizing airmass will protrude northward through the
eastern half of the cyclone and feature mid 60s dewpoints over the
continental shelf waters. Some model guidance (recent NAM runs)
shows the warm sector near the low perhaps overspreading the
immediate beaches briefly (1-3 hours) during the morning hours.
Forecast soundings indicate that potential organized storm
structures will focus over the shelf waters and immediate Outer
Banks vicinity. A short-duration, low supercell-tornado risk cannot
be ruled out before the potential convective activity clears the
coast and moves into the western Atlantic.

..Smith.. 02/11/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms posing some risk for severe weather may
approach, and perhaps spread across, portions of North Carolina
coastal areas Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, mainly
near Outer Banks vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Blocking has become a bit more prominent within the mid/upper flow
across the southern mid- and subtropical Pacific, near and to the
east and north of the Hawaiian Islands. Around the northern
periphery of this regime, a number of progressive short wave troughs
are embedded within a strong belt of westerlies extending more or
less zonally downstream of the northern mid-latitude Pacific, across
the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. This includes one forecast to
dig east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies through northwestern
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night, and
another across the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast.

Within an initially more amplified branch across the southern
mid-latitudes, it appears that the center of a significant mid-level
low, currently digging along the California coast, will bottom out
to the west of northern Baja, before turning inland Sunday night and
reaching southwestern Arizona by 12Z Monday. A similar, but deeper,
downstream low is forecast to migrate from the Georgia Piedmont
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast.

In association with the lead perturbation, a significant cold front
likely will have advanced through much of the Gulf of Mexico and
south/east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys by the beginning of the
period. Secondary surface cyclogenesis may gradually be underway
near the North Carolina coast, but it appears that the more rapid
deepening may not occur until later Sunday through Sunday night,
offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast.

In the wake of the developing cyclone and trailing cold front,
generally dry and/or stable conditions will prevail across much of
the nation.

...North Carolina coast vicinity...
Based on consideration of the various model output, the potential
for severe thunderstorm development near and inland of coastal areas
early Sunday still appears rather low. This will mostly depend on
the evolution of the surface frontal wave/low, which remains a bit
uncertain, but could perhaps include a strongly sheared and unstable
warm sector boundary layer spreading inland across portions of
coastal areas. If this occurs, it probably would be accompanied by
a risk for organized severe convection, including supercells.

...Southwest...
It appears that stronger destabilization supportive of convection
capable of producing lightning, beneath a mid-level cold core
including 500 mb temperatures of -28 to -30 C, probably will remain
initially offshore of southern California coastal areas. However,
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night this may change with cooling
aloft along and east of the Peninsular Ranges through the lower
Colorado Valley. Destabilization within a downstream warm advection
regime across the Mogollon Rim into Colorado Plateau may also become
marginally sufficient for scattered weak thunderstorm development.

..Kerr.. 02/11/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181713
SWODY2
SPC AC 181712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

Fast, zonal mid/upper-level flow will spread across the southern
tier of the U.S. as a midlevel upper trough develops eastward from
the northern Rockies toward the Midwest. Surface high pressure over
the Southeast will maintain a mostly dry boundary-layer. By the end
of the period, weak surface troughing over the High Plains will
result in some modest moistening on southerly low-level return flow
across coastal and eastern TX. However, little instability, and weak
forcing for ascent, will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes will be possible from southwest Oregon
across the California Coast and into northwest Arizona throughout
the period. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions
of the Southeast later Thursday evening.

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend
across the CONUS, from southern CA northeastward through the central
Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes/Northeast, early Thursday
morning. A shortwave trough embedded within this southwesterly flow
is forecast to move from the mid MO Valley quickly northeastward
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes throughout the day. An
associated surface low will take a similar path, moving from central
IL northeastward through the Northeast as an attendant cold front
sweeps southeastward. By 12Z Friday, this low will likely be
centered off the ME coast, with the cold front extending back
southwestward from this low through NC, central portions of the
Southeast states, and into southeast TX.

Farther west, an upper low will continue southward along the West
Coast, from just off the Pacific Northwest coast early Thursday to
off the northern CA Coast by early Friday. At the same time, a
shortwave trough is expected to proceed this low, moving from
southern CA to the Four Corners.

...Northeast...
Shallow convection is possible from northern PA through central
NY/Hudson Valley and into southern New England Thursday evening amid strengthening warm-air advection and modest ascent attendant to the
approaching surface low. A warm front will likely remain in place
across southern NY into southern New England, with the surface low
moving along this front. Consequently, most of this convection will
be elevated. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures will keep an
updrafts shallow, likely limiting lightning production. Even so,
given the strong low to mid-level flow, a few stronger gusts are
possible with this convection.

...Southeast...
Frontal progression will likely slow Thursday evening at it reaches
northern MS/AL, in response to gradually strengthening low-level
southerly flow. Resulting increasing in warm-air advection may
trigger a few thunderstorms within the modestly moist air mass in
place from the Mid-South into northern MS/AL.

...West Coast into Northwest AZ...
Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the
upper low will contribute to isolated thunderstorms throughout the
period from coastal OR along the CA coast into southern CA. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the lead shortwave trough
across northwestern AZ vicinity Thursday evening.

..Mosier.. 02/22/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230523
SWODY2
SPC AC 230521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few low-topped thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of
coastal and central California.

...Synopsis...
Strong southwest flow aloft will exist over much of the CONUS on
Friday, with an upper trough over the West and an upper high
centered over FL. The western trough will amplify into Saturday
morning, as an embedded closed low drops south just off the CA
coast. At the surface, high pressure will maintain stable conditions
from the Plains into the East, while a front stalls over the Gulf
coast states. Lift north of this boundary will remain weak, with
generally non-convective rain showers expected.

To the west, cold air aloft may lead to weak instability along the
CA coast, and isolated lightning flashes may occur as a cold front
intersects the coast and translates south during the day.
Instability will be very weak, and therefore severe storms appear
unlikely.

..Jewell.. 02/23/2023

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231715
SWODY2
SPC AC 231714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of coastal and
central California as well as southeast Georgia and southern South
Carolina.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong westerly/southwesterly flow is forecast to stretch from
central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great
Lakes and Northeast early Friday morning. This flow is expected to
trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging
builds across most of the western CONUS and a strong upper low drops
southward along the CA coast. Additionally, subtropical ridging
initially centered over south FL/Bahamas should gradually drift
westward throughout the period.

At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low just off
the ME coast southeastward through eastern NC across northern
portions of the Southeast States into southeast TX. This boundary is
expected to remain largely in place during the period while
weakening. Showers with a few deeper cores are anticipated from
northeast TX through the Mid-South into northern AL tomorrow
morning, north of the cold front. A few lightning flashes are
possible but modest lift coupled with warm temperatures aloft is
expected to limit lightning production. A greater chance of
thunderstorms exists across southeast GA/southern SC tomorrow
afternoon along the front, which will be more progress here than
areas farther west.

Additional lightning flashes are expected within the persistent
forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with
the upper low moving southward along the CA coast. Highest coverage
is expected early in the period along the coast, but an additional
increase in lightning is possible during the early afternoon across
southern CA as the frontal band moves through.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2023

$$

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