ACUS03 KWNS 190801
SWODY3
SPC AC 190800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas Saturday morning
across the Southeast states during the day, and into portions of
northern Florida/southern Georgia early Sunday morning.

...Synopsis...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over the southern
High Plain early Saturday morning, with strong mid-level flow
stretching from its base eastward/northeastward through the
Mid-Atlantic. This cyclone is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it does. By early
Sunday morning, this system will likely extend across the Mid-MS
Valley.

Favorable low-level moisture will be displaced south of this
shortwave trough, with 60s surface dewpoints expected to stay
offshore. This lack of low-level moisture will preclude
surface-based storms, but persistent warm-air advection is expected
to support elevated thunderstorms from southeast TX Saturday morning
across the Southeast states during the day, and into portions of
northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning. Vertical shear will be
strong enough to support organized storms, but limited buoyancy
should keep the severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 01/19/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140757
SWODY3
SPC AC 140756

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to be centered over the central
Plains early Monday morning, before then progressing northeastward
and maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone. An attendant
surface low will take a similar track as the system becomes
increasingly vertically stacked. An associated cold front will
extend southward from this low, pushing eastward across the Mid MS
Valley throughout the day. By early Tuesday morning, this cyclone
will likely be centered over Lake MI, with the cold front arcing
southeastward into Lower MI and then back southwestward to another
surface low over south-central OK.

Strong forcing for ascent is expected across the Mid MS Valley as
the maturing shortwave and associated cold front push through Monday
morning. Thermodynamic conditions ahead of the front will be
marginal at best, but modest elevated buoyancy is possible as a
result of cold mid-level temperatures. As a result, isolated
lightning flashes are possible. A few stronger convectively
augmented gusts are possible as well.

The active pattern will continue across the western CONUS, with
another shortwave trough expected to drop southward across CA during
the period. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for
ascent could result in a few updrafts deep enough to produce
lightning.

..Mosier.. 01/14/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210808
SWODY3
SPC AC 210807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate further amplification of the mid/upper flow across
the mid-latitude Pacific during this period. This is likely to
include building of the persistent large-scale ridging offshore of
the North American coast, through much of the remainder of the
northeastern Pacific and southeastern Alaska/British Columbia
coastal areas. An initially prominent embedded high over the
southern mid-latitudes is forecast to weaken, with a new high
gradually beginning to form in the northern mid-latitudes. As this
occurs, it appears that a vigorous short wave trough and embedded
mid-level low, within a southern branch of split downstream
westerlies, will gradually turn eastward into/across the southern
Rockies vicinity. After bottoming out near the Southwestern
international border area, and interacting with a branch of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, spread
among the various models increases with regard to the eastward
progression of this perturbation by late Monday night.

In the wake of a significant preceding short wave trough and
associated surface cyclone progressing away from the Atlantic
Seaboard, a trailing frontal zone is forecast to advance through
much of the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. However, in
response to deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern
Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley vicinity, the front may
redevelop back to the north, across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
into portions of southern Texas by late Monday night.

An elevated return flow of Gulf moisture into parts of central and
southeast Texas may contribute to increasing convection and embedded thunderstorms Monday night, when destabilization beneath strong
mid-level cooling may also contribute to a risk for thunderstorm
activity across the High Plains of New Mexico into west Texas.
Although mid-level lapse rates may be initially steep, as shear
increases through the convective layer, the extent to which
destabilization may support a risk for severe hail remains unclear.
Once spread within/among the various model output begins to
decrease, it is possible that low severe weather probabilities may
be needed in later outlooks for this period. For now, though, the
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears less than 5 percent.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200800
SWODY3
SPC AC 200800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern
Georgia, northern Florida and portions of adjacent states Sunday,
accompanied by at least some potential for producing damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates that amplified mid-level ridging, with
an embedded high, will remain prominent across the eastern Pacific
into U.S. Pacific coastal areas through this period. At the same
time, a western Atlantic subtropical high may continue to build west-northwestward across the Caribbean and Bahamas, while a
significant mid-level low develops west-southwestward across the
northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. In between, short wave
developments within split branches of westerlies across much of
North America remain unclear, with substantial spread still evident
in model output, particularly inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
through the Atlantic Seaboard.

In general, it appears that one consolidating mid-level trough will
accelerate from the lower Missouri Valley/southern Great Plains
vicinity toward the Atlantic Seaboard, as a more prominent upstream perturbation digs south-southeastward across the Intermountain West
and Rockies vicinity. Models indicate that the lead impulse may
eventually support significant surface cyclogenesis along a remnant
frontal zone initially advancing inland across parts of the
Southeast. However, latest output continues to suggest that the most substantive deepening may not occur until Sunday night, mainly
offshore, from near the southern Mid Atlantic toward southern New
England coasts.

...Southeast...
Coinciding with the frontal wave, southerly return flow emanating
from the Gulf of Mexico may continue to moisten across the region
Sunday. Associated destabilization, potentially supportive of
thunderstorm development inland of the Gulf of Mexico, will largely
be confined to the cool side of the front initially. However,
models indicate that weak boundary-layer moistening and
destabilization may accompany the inland-migrating low across the
Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia during the morning into
afternoon. If this occurs, it appears that it will do so in the
presence of 40-60+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in
the 850-500 mb layer, with forecast hodographs becoming conducive to
organized convection. This may include a couple of discrete
supercell structures with potential to produce locally strong
surface gusts and/or tornadoes, before the favorable large-scale
forcing develops offshore of the south Atlantic coast by Sunday
evening.

..Kerr.. 01/20/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240755
SWODY3
SPC AC 240754

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging, centered near
the Caribbean, will generally maintain strength through this period.
In the higher latitudes, the center of a broad, deep mid-level low
may remain northeast of Hudson Bay, but larger-scale cyclonic flow
will continue to evolve within a branch of westerlies to its south,
across the Great Lakes through the Canadian Maritimes. In
association with a remnant vigorous short wave perturbation within
this regime, a significant surface cyclone, initially centered near
the New England coast, is forecast to continue deepening while
migrating across and northeast of the Canadian Maritimes.

Upstream, models indicate that a prominent mid-level high, initially
to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast, will redevelop
northwestward across the northeastern Pacific, within larger-scale
ridging building northward into Alaska. Between this feature and
the Arctic low, mid-level flow emanating from the northwestern
Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to take on an increasingly
northerly component into the U.S. Great Plains. One prominent
digging impulse within this regime is forecast to be accompanied by
another significant surface cyclone across the Canadian Prairies
into the U.S. Upper Midwest by late Thursday night.

A cold front trailing the lead cyclone will advance away from the
Atlantic Seaboard and through much of the remainder of the southern
Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico Thursday through Thursday
night. In its wake, downslope warming is probable from the Rockies
into the Great Plains, but this will occur in advance of a much
strong cold intrusion trailing the cyclone emerging from the
Canadian Prairies.

...South Florida...
A deepening moist pre-frontal surface-based layer may contribute to
convective development along and ahead of the front with daytime
heating Thursday. It might not be out of the question that some of
this could briefly become capable of producing lightning, mainly
near Atlantic coastal areas. However, thunderstorm development is
generally expected to be suppressed by a lingering warm layer
evident in forecast soundings around 500 mb. Overall, thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent.

..Kerr.. 01/24/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the mid-level ridging centered over
the Caribbean from Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, in higher
latitudes, a much more prominent mid-level low will persist to the
northeast of Hudson Bay, downstream of a mid-level high that may
redevelop a bit farther northward across the northeastern Pacific,
closer to the Gulf of Alaska.

Between these features, amplifying flow, with an increasingly
northerly component emanating from the northwestern Canadian Arctic,
likely will continue to evolve inland of the Pacific coast through
much of western North America. Within one branch of westerlies
emerging from this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast
to turn east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies, before progressing
to the north of the central international border area and Great
Lakes region (to the south of the Arctic low). In its wake, cold
surface high pressure will build to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, with the leading edge of the Arctic air also
advancing through much of the Upper Midwest by 12Z Saturday.

In the wake of a more modest preceding cold front reaching the
western Atlantic and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, surface ridging is
expected to shift across the Gulf Coast vicinity into the Southeast,
while modest surface troughing develops to the lee of the southern
Rockies. It appears that this will be accompanied by modestly
moistening southerly return flow through the lower Rio Grande
Valley/lower into middle Texas Gulf coast vicinity Friday night.
However, beneath low amplitude mid/upper ridging building across the
northwest Gulf coast, a prominent warm layer aloft is forecast to
cap any low-level destabilization.

..Kerr.. 01/25/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130746
SWODY3
SPC AC 130744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward/northeastward
across the Four Corners and southern/central High Plains into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of this shortwave, with a low developing over
southeast CO before moving eastward into south-central KS by Sunday
night and then northeastward into northeast KS by Monday morning.
Southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave and associated
surface low. However, scouring of the low-level moisture return by a
previous frontal intrusion will limit the quality of the moisture
return, with 60s dewpoints likely remaining along the TX Coast. Mid
50s dewpoints are expected into the ArkLaTex. A few lightning
flashes are possible in the OK/AR border vicinity early Monday
morning, but limited buoyancy should keep most updrafts too shallow
for lightning production.

Farther west, another shortwave trough is expected to move into
northern CA late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures may result in isolated
updrafts capable of lightning, particularly early Monday morning.

..Mosier.. 01/13/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040757
SWODY3
SPC AC 040756

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United States
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move across the central
CONUS on Monday with a surface cold front crossing the central
Plains. High pressure and cold, dry continental air is expected east
of the Mississippi River.

Some moisture return is expected ahead of a cold front across the central/southern Plains on Monday. Some shower development is
expected across Kansas/western Missouri and Oklahoma, but
instability appears too limited to support thunderstorm activity.

..Bentley.. 02/04/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050828
SWODY3
SPC AC 050827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
across portions of southern/southeast Texas.

...Southern/southeast Texas...
The southern portion of an upper-level trough will evolve into a
closed low structure over TX/OK Tuesday as a surface cold front
moves east across central/eastern TX. Strengthening low-level flow
will result in northward transport of lower 60s surface dew points
inland and contribute to the development of modest surface-based
instability. Although cloud cover will likely be widespread and
limit diurnal heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop near
and east of the cold front as large-scale lift develops during the
day.

Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized storm
structures including a couple of supercells, and a linear mode with
time as the cold front advances east late in the day. The primary
uncertainty at this juncture is the degree and extent of
surface-based destabilization ahead of the front. A categorical
Marginal Risk has been introduced where confidence appears highest
in MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg developing through low-level theta-e
advection and weak surface heating. A risk for isolated damaging
winds will exist primarily in association with the expected
development of a line of storms near the front, while some potential
for low-level rotation may exist with more discrete cells developing
in the afternoon/evening as low-level southerly flow strengthens and
hodographs become favorably curved in the surface-3 km layer.

..Bunting.. 02/05/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060835
SWODY3
SPC AC 060834

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee
Valley.

...ArkLaTex to Tennessee Valley including LA/AR/MS/AL/TN...
Severe-weather potential is expected to increase into Wednesday
across the region. This will be as a shortwave trough/polar jet
spread northeastward from the south-central Plains/Ozarks toward the
Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass across the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

However, numerical guidance timing/spatial variability and the
likelihood of early day convection, as well as modest overall
destabilization, cast uncertainty regarding the potential and
placement of somewhat higher severe probabilities (such as a Slight
Risk) at this time. Recent NAM runs continue to be much more
east-northeastward progressive as compared to recent ECMWF/GFS
guidance.

Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will likely be semi-persistent factors ahead of the cold front on Wednesday,
although most global guidance has trended slightly more unstable
with respect to the warm/moist sector over the prior 24-36 hr of
guidance runs. Regardless, currently thinking is the warm sector
will at least modestly destabilize Wednesday across portions of
Louisiana into Arkansas/Mississippi. At least an isolated
severe-weather potential should increase accordingly, including
damaging wind/tornado risks. This severe potential should reach
portions of Alabama/Tennessee Wednesday night.

An upgrade to a categorical Slight Risk could be warranted for
portions of the region into the Day 2 time frame and forecast
details become clearer.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and related
deepening phase of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from
the Ozarks to the Midwest could influence a strongly forced
low-topped convective line across the region Wednesday night, even
in the presence of minimal instability with northward extent. Given
a pronounced strengthening of deep-layer winds, along with
steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities may be
warranted in future outlooks, even with thermodynamic
uncertainties/potential limitations.

..Guyer.. 02/06/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060841
SWODY3
SPC AC 060840

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee
Valley.

...ArkLaTex to Tennessee Valley including LA/AR/MS/AL/TN...
Severe-weather potential is expected to increase into Wednesday
across the region. This will be as a shortwave trough/polar jet
spread northeastward from the south-central Plains/Ozarks toward the
Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass across the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

However, numerical guidance timing/spatial variability and the
likelihood of early day convection, as well as modest overall
destabilization, cast uncertainty regarding the potential and
placement of somewhat higher severe probabilities (such as a Slight
Risk) at this time. Recent NAM runs continue to be much more
east-northeastward progressive as compared to recent ECMWF/GFS
guidance.

Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will likely be semi-persistent factors ahead of the cold front on Wednesday,
although most global guidance has trended slightly more unstable
with respect to the warm/moist sector over the prior 24-36 hr of
guidance runs. Regardless, currently thinking is the warm sector
will at least modestly destabilize Wednesday across portions of
Louisiana into Arkansas/Mississippi. At least an isolated
severe-weather potential should increase accordingly, including
damaging wind/tornado risks. This severe potential should reach
portions of Alabama/Tennessee Wednesday night.

An upgrade to a categorical Slight Risk could be warranted for
portions of the region into the Day 2 time frame as forecast details
become clearer.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and related
deepening phase of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from
the Ozarks to the Midwest could influence a strongly forced
low-topped convective line across the region Wednesday night, even
in the presence of minimal instability with northward extent. Given
a pronounced strengthening of deep-layer winds, along with
steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities may be
warranted in future outlooks, even with thermodynamic
uncertainties/potential limitations.

..Guyer.. 02/06/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070830
SWODY3
SPC AC 070829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the
Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia.

...Southeast States including parts of Florida/Georgia/Alabama...
A weakening squall line or at least residual bands of convection and
related cloud debris will likely exist across parts of Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle Thursday morning. The brunt of the
Midwest-centered upper trough will quickly shift away from the
region, but steady height falls will still occur while a belt of
strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds will tend to lag the cold
front. This cold front should decelerate and potentially stall
across the Southeast on Thursday, but scattered thunderstorms will
tend to persist eastward and/or redevelop within the diurnally
destabilizing warm sector, particularly in areas within 75-100 miles
of the Gulf of Mexico. This is the most probable corridor for where
isolated severe storms could occur. This could potentially include a
few supercells/small bows capable of wind damage and a tornado risk
across northern Florida/southern Alabama into southern Georgia.

...Midwest/Middle Ohio River Valley...
A fast-northeastward-moving low-topped convective line may be
located across Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio around sunrise Thursday
morning. Given the extremely strong low/mid-tropospheric winds (75+
kt at 700 mb) and modest moisture (50s F surface dewpoints),
convectively enhanced wind gusts cannot be ruled out early in the
day, even at a time when boundary layer stability tends to be
maximized. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks
for potential inclusion of wind-related severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 02/07/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080831
SWODY3
SPC AC 080829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast on
Friday including northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia into
southern South Carolina.

...Southeast States...
A positive-tilt upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over
the Deep South on Friday. A preceding cold front will likely be
located near/just east of the southern Appalachians and across
Georgia/northern Florida Friday morning. A moist air mass is
expected to be in place ahead of it especially across Florida into
parts of Georgia/southern South Carolina.

While the boundary layer will be relatively moist (60s F surface
dewpoints), overall destabilization is currently expected to be
muted by some lingering cloud cover as well as weak mid-level lapse
rates. Even so, weak destabilization in the presence of 40+ kt
effective shear may be conducive for a few severe thunderstorms
through Friday afternoon. Current thinking is that wind damage would
be the most probable severe hazard.

..Guyer.. 02/08/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090825
SWODY3
SPC AC 090824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday.

...Florida...
A southern-stream upper trough over the Gulf Coast on Saturday will
continue east-northeastward toward the Southeast through Saturday
night. A surface cold front should extend across northern Florida
southwestward into the eastern of Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
morning, with a moist air mass across the majority of Florida ahead
of the front. Moderate heating/cloud breaks should allow for modest
diurnal destabilization, especially across the central/eastern
Peninsula, although buoyancy will be somewhat muted by weak
mid-level lapse rates. The strongest winds aloft will tend to lag
the cold front, but 35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level winds should
coincide with storms developing/increasing near and just ahead of
the front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur on
Saturday, with localized wind damage as the most probable hazard.

..Guyer.. 02/09/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100758
SWODY3
SPC AC 100757

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially over GA will move east-northeastward to
east of the VA/NC coast by early Monday morning. A surface low near
the Carolina coast will migrate northeast along the NC Outer Banks
during the day before moving into the western Atlantic. Farther
west, a mid-level low west of southern CA will move east to the
northern part of the Gulf of California. Surface high pressure
centered over the central US and building in the Southeast will lead
to tranquil conditions for much of the Lower 48.

..Smith.. 02/10/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110728
SWODY3
SPC AC 110727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially along the AZ/Sonora border will move
east-northeast to the NM/OK/TX border by early Tuesday morning. An
upstream mid-level trough will dig southward along the Pacific
Northwest coastline. Surface high pressure initially over much of
the central US and the Gulf basin will quickly weaken during the
day. A lee trough is forecast to develop over the southern High
Plains late in the day in response to the approaching mid-level
feature, before a deepening cyclone evolves over eastern CO early
Tuesday. The early stage of moisture return from the western Gulf
into the southern Great Plains will occur. Limited low-level
moisture featuring 50s surface dewpoints will overspread the coastal
plain and eventually into parts of central and north TX late Monday
night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably
develop Monday night across parts of the southern Great Plains
within strengthening warm-air advection, but weak instability will
likely preclude a low severe risk.

..Smith.. 02/11/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120743
SWODY3
SPC AC 120743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Tuesday
for the contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A very intense mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move from the
TX Panhandle early Tuesday morning to the Upper Midwest late Tuesday
night. A cyclone over the central High Plains will move northeast
reaching the NE/IA border by early evening and the Upper Peninsula
of MI and northern WI by early Wednesday. A narrow low-level
moisture plume will extend northward from the northwest Gulf Coast
to the lower MO Valley during the afternoon. Considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the possibility for weak
destabilization over the lower MO Valley. Very cold 500 mb
temperatures associated with the mid-level cold pocket will result
in steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading eastern KS/western MO
during the day. If appreciable heating can occur in wake of early
to midday clouds/rainfall, then perhaps sufficient destabilization
can occur before strong forcing for ascent exits to the northeast,
for a couple of strong storms in this highly uncertain scenario over
the lower MO Valley.

Elsewhere, widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the
northwest Gulf Coast/Arklatex during the morning before dissipating
as WAA and strongest mass response shift away from the region.

..Smith.. 02/12/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150740
SWODY3
SPC AC 150739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S.
during the day-3 period. A surface low over New England early
Friday morning will quickly move east of the coast by midday. An
cold front will sweep eastward through the Carolinas by late
afternoon and push southeastward through the FL Peninsula Friday
night. Showers and a few weak, elevated thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the Carolinas Friday morning. This activity will likely
extend farther southwest into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend
vicinity, before weakening convergence and lessening instability
reduce the chances for thunderstorms by late in the day.

..Smith.. 02/15/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180739
SWODY3
SPC AC 180738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The continuation of a split-flow upper-air pattern will feature a
closed low to the west of Baja California and several low-amplitude disturbances migrating east across the northern stream. Surface high
pressure is forecast to weaken over the Gulf of Mexico, and a
gradual increase in low-level moisture is forecast over the coastal
plain of the central Gulf Coast. Weak low-level warm-air advection
may result in a few showers and perhaps a couple of weak elevated
thunderstorms late Monday night from southern AR into north-central
AL.

..Smith.. 02/18/2023

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230629
SWODY3
SPC AC 230629

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Saturday over the contiguous United
States.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move east across southern portions of CA on
Saturday, providing steep lapse rates aloft. This wave will
progress east into AZ overnight, with a leading 100+ kt midlevel
speed max ahead of it. To the east, heights will rise over the
Plains, with an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain stable due to high
pressure. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will linger across the Gulf
Coast states, with an east-west boundary making marginal northward
progress. While a few showers may occur north of the boundary from
TX to the Carolinas, little uncapped CAPE will be present to support thunderstorms.

Sporadic lightning flashes may occur however in association with the
cold upper low over southern CA, where 500 mb temperatures will
reach below -30 C. Here, a few convective showers may develop within
the arcing zone of ascent with the aid of southerly upslope winds,
but very weak instability will preclude severe chances.

..Jewell.. 02/23/2023

$$

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