ACUS11 KWNS 120130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120130=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-120330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120130Z - 120330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may increase in areal coverage as
the evening progresses. Hail and wind are the primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/diagnostic data suggest an upper low
has advanced to near DDC in southwest KS. Short-wave trough extends
south across western OK, and this feature is advancing east toward
the lower MS Valley, in line with earlier model guidance. This
system is very dynamic and 120m, 12hr mid-level height falls are
forecast to spread downstream later this evening. 00z sounding from
OUN exhibited very steep lapse rates through 6km with backing at mid
levels observed, suggesting the leading edge of strong forcing has
advanced into eastern OK. Over the last hour, a lone thunderstorm
had developed over southeast OK, near Pushmataha/Latimer County.
This storm is developing along the northern gradient of higher
surface dew points, along the eastern edge of steepest lapse rate
plume. There is increasing concern this activity may continue to
mature and possibly expand in areal coverage due to the approaching
short wave and gradual increase in moisture/buoyancy. At this time
the initial activity is likely a bit elevated; however, increasing
moisture downstream may allow convective bases to lower and become near-surface-based by late evening. In the short term, some hail may
be noted with elevated storms as they mature and spread into western
AR.

..Darrow/Hart.. 01/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Sccp0AAM0pnDAyGoLJHUeX3hLFN_0fDnunf0N5qNSSND3reKH1dMNN53t1EF9IzarF6I_bj1= qADTSYbRptKetSNKQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34719552 35829399 35489276 34319320 34219519 34719552=20


=3D =3D =3D
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