SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 5, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

Each of the weekly solar and geomagnetic indicators that we track were lower this week. Average daily sunspot number dropped 10.6 points to 25.1, and average daily solar flux was 4.5 points lower
than the previous week at 76.9.

It is comforting to see though that we have not witnessed a day with 0 sunspots
since April 17. Average planetary and mid-latitude A index were both 5.6, down from the previous week which had planetary A index at 26.4 and mid-latitude at 18.4.

The A index is expected to remain quiet until May 17-20.

As of Thursday night, May 4, the predicted solar flux is 76 on May 5-8, 74 on May 9-12, 75 on May 13-14, 80 on May 15-18, 85 on May 19-21, 80 on May 22-23, 77 on May 24-27, 75 on May 28-30, 73 on May 31 through June 8, 75 on June 9-10,
80 on June 11-14, 85 on June 15-16, and 88 on June 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 8 on May 5-6, 5 on May 7-9, then 8, 5, 8, 8, 5, and 8 on May 10-15, then 15, 30 and 25 on May 16-18, then 45, 50, 15, 10 and 8 on May 19-23, then 5 on May 24-27, then 12 and 8 on May 28-29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, 8 on June 2-4, and 5 on June 5-10, then 8, 15, 30, 25, 45 and 50 on June 11-16.


Also related to planetary A index is the OK1HH bulletin from the Czech Propagation Interest Group:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 10, 14-15,
Mostly quiet on May 9, 13, 16, 25-30
Quiet to unsettled May 5-6, 22-24, 31
Quiet to active on May 7-8, 11-12, 19-21
Active to disturbed on May 17-18

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May (5-9,)
16-19, (20).

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

Remember, you can get a new and revised 45-day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index daily, usually after 2100 UTC from NOAA at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .


Dr. Tamitha Skov released a new space weather video commentary yesterday: http://bit.ly/2pdyRv7 .


Bob Kile, W7RH of Las Vegas, Nevada noticed a nice sporadic-E 6 meter opening on May 3:

"Spring is here and so was the first sporadic-E propagation on 6m for the season. There were openings on 6m from the SW to mid-west on May 2nd and 3rd. I
happened to be listening on May 3rd when the band opened up at about 00:00 to the mid-west. Beacons were copied in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. I could not hear the guys in California but a few in southern Arizona could be heard at times.

"Stations worked were in West Texas, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado. Of special note two stations in Cheyenne, WY WY7HR and WY7KY were solid copy for several hours when the band finally closed about 0200 UTC."

Bob at his home QTH is using a 3 element Yagi on 6 meters mounted low on his patio. But I think more interesting is his HF remote base station literally in the middle of nowhere in the Northern Arizona desert, a good distance northeast
of Seligman, and approximately 240 miles from Bob's home in Las Vegas.

You can check his QRZ.com listing or http://w7rh.net/ for a deeper rundown.


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2017 were 23, 35, 34, 33, 11, 25, and 15, with a mean of 25.1. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 78, 77, 77.4, 75.3, 77.2, and 74.9, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 10, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 2, with a mean of 5.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it wrong...
... You have dialed an imaginary number. Rotate your phone 90 degrees
---
* Origin: (1:3634/12.73)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 4, 2018
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots disappeared again this week, with a blank Sun on April 28, and continuing on every day since.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 20 to 3.6, while average daily solar
flux decreased from 73.4 to 69.3.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 11.9 to 4.4 and average mid-latitude A index went from 8.6 to 5.

Predicted solar flux is 67 on May 4-5, 68 on May 6, 69 on May 7-10, 68 on May 11-13, 70 on May 14-28, 68 on May 29 through June 9, and 70 on June 10-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 4-5, then 18, 22, 16, 12 and 8 on May 6-10, 5 on May 11-16, then 42, 12 and 8 on May 17-19, 5 on May 20 through June 1, then 8, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-6, 5 on June 7-12, then 42, 12, and 8 on June 13-15 and 5 on June 16-17.



F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group has been
compiling this weekly forecast since 1978.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 4-29, 2018

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 23-26, 28-29
Mostly quiet on May 14, 16, 21-22, 27
Quiet to unsettled on May 4, 11-13, 19-20
Quiet to active on May 5, 8-10, 15, (18)
Active to disturbed on May (6-7,) 17

"Solar wind will intensify on May 5-7, (8-11,) 17-18, (19-20, 26-27)

"Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are continuing
to be less reliable."



Thanks to British ham Max White, M0VNG and others for alerting us to the recent
buzz about the current solar cycle perhaps reaching a minimum sooner than predicted:

https://bit.ly/2HN8fdn

Consensus seemed to place the approaching solar minimum around two years from now in 2020, but recent trends suggest the minimum may appear sooner. Does this
mean the turnaround and following increase may also come sooner than previously
anticipated?

K9LA has info on this:

http://k9la.us/May18_Solar_Minimum_and_Spotless_Days.pdf

http://k9la.us/html/monthly_feature.html



New from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/ylecUN5LgYA - On the Ledge About Stealthy Solar Storms

"Dear Tad,

"Sometimes I wish I had started this Space Weather Woman thing a decade ago. That way I would be able to do a direct comparison with how things were during our last solar minimum in 2008. But then I realize, I wouldn't have had the benefit of you giving me timely reports from your local areas on social media. I wouldn't have heard you talking about the impacts you were experiencing during these solar events. This reminds me how grateful I am to all of you today. If it weren't for you, I would never know the extent to which Space Weather affects our everyday lives.

"This brings me to this week's forecast video. I am still shaking my head that we managed to miss a stealthy solar storm that brought aurora clear down to Illinois, USA. Guaranteed, national grids were on high alert as we crossed through the G2-level storm threshold. The irony that this stealthy solar storm occurred while we convened a workshop on how to predict them is not lost on me.
In fact, it's kind of a cosmic cattle prod. If we can experience such a strong solar storm that surprised us all--so near solar minimum--what does that say about our forecasting ability?

"I hope events like these serve as a wakeup call to us scientists, forecasters,
and meteorologists alike. Although this week the Earth-facing side of the Sun is reasonably quiet, I will take this
moment to reflect on all the work we have yet to do. In fact, that's exactly what I was doing while sitting on my window ledge during my last night in Switzerland (see the picture above). I was reflecting. Thanks so much for reminding me how important all of this is.

"Cheers,

"Tamitha"



Ever seen this?

https://ham.stackexchange.com/



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 26 through May 2, 2018 were 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 68.7, 70.2, 71.1, 70.2, 68.4, and
67.1, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 4, 4, 6, 3,
and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 5, 5, 3, 10, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it wrong...
... Confusion is always the most honest response.
---
* Origin: (1:3634/12.73)