SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP08
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA February 24, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

At 0124 UTC on February 22 Australian Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for February 22-24:

"The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole is expected to raise geomagnetic activity to active levels from 22 to 24 February with the possibility of minor storm periods on 23 and 24 February.

"Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream from 23-24 February 2017.

"Geomagnetic Activity Forecast
23 Feb: Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods possible
24 Feb: Unsettled to Active"

Spaceweather.com on February 22 issued a Solar Wind Advisory: "Earth is about to enter a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the Sun's atmosphere. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on February 23rd as the solar wind speed quickens to 550 km/s or more. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Thursday and Friday nights. See updates and sightings at http://www.spaceweather.com."

Over the past week, February 16-22, average daily sunspot number compared to the previous seven days increased from 17.6 to 19.1, while average solar flux increased from 75.1 to 78.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were slightly higher, with average planetary A index increasing from 4.7 to 11.3, and average mid-latitude A index changing from 2.9
to 9.

Predicted solar flux (on February 22) is 84 on February 23-24, 83 on February 25, 82 on February 26 through March 1, 78 on March 2, 73 on March 3-4, 72 on March 5-7, 73 and 74 on March 8-9, 75 on March 10-14, then 74, 75, 77 and 79 on
March 15-18, 82 on March 19-24, then 80, 78 and 76 on March 25-27, 75 on March 28-29, 73 on March 30-31, and 72 on April 1-3.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 12 on February 23-24, 8 on February 25-26, then 16, 24 and 20 on February 27 through March 1, 15 on March 2-5, 8 on
March 6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 12 on March 15-19, 10 on March 20-21, then 12, 15, 20 and 18 on March 22-25, then 8, 30, 25 and 20 on March 26-29.


Geomagnetic predictions are included as usual this week from F.K. Janda, OK1HH,
but first is a shorter term forecast from Thomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism at the Budkov Observatory:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 24-March 2, 2017

"Quiet: episodically Feb 25-26
Unsettled: Feb 25-Mar 2
Active: Feb 24-25, 28, Mar 1
Minor storm: possible Feb 24, 28
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

"Geomagnetic activity summary: 'We expect unsettled conditions during the next week. Tomorrow, Friday, February 24, we expect an active episode, unlikely minor storm event. The other active episode is probable at February 28-March 1.
The activity is probable at active/minor storm again.

"'The other days, we expect at most unsettled conditions. During the coming weekend, the activity can briefly decrease to quiet level, then, we expect at most unsettled conditions till the active episode mentioned above."'

"Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)"


"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 24-March 22, 2017:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 7-8, 11-12, 15
Mostly quiet on February 25-26, March 6, 14
Quiet to unsettled February 24, March 9-10, 13, (21-22)
Quiet to active on February 27, March 3-5, 16, 19-20
Active to disturbed on February 28, March 1-2, 17-18

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 27-28, March 3-5, (6-8)

"Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.


"F.K. Janda, OK1HH Czech Propagation Interested Group OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978 e-mail: ok1hh@rsys.cz ."


Jon Jones, N0JK (Editor of The World Above 50 MHz, the QST monthly VHF column since 2011) sent some notes on last weekend's ARRL International CW DX Contest.
(The Phone contest weekend will be on
March 4-5, 2017).

"Feb 19 5:47 PM:

"To Tad, The 10 meter band was like 'day' and 'night' between Saturday and Sunday of the ARRL DX CW contest.

"I operated fixed mobile single band on 10 with a full size 1/4 wave whip both days. Saturday was nice sunny warm weather, but almost a dead band. I found PJ2T and PJ4X, both weak with QSB, and worked. I called XR2K for over an hour with luck. Did he mean NO Luck? - Ed. That was it. Is this how 10 meters will be at solar minimum?"

(Often in the past, N0JK used a shortened CB antenna, commonly used during the CB craze in the 1970s, on the back of his car for 10 meters while parked in his
driveway in Lawrence, Kansas, so a full quarter wave at 8 feet, 3 inches is quite an improvement).

"10 meters was so much better Sunday. It was a flashback to how 10 was in the 2016 ARRL DX CW when the solar flux was around 100. I set up, turned on the radio and 100 watt PY2NY was blasting in on 28.034 MHz.

"CE, CX and PY were strong for hours. Caribbean and Central American contest stations were up and down the band. Not bad for a solar flux of just 77.

"Worked PJ7AAA at 1856z who was running just a 'K3 and Buddipole.' XR2K in the log with one call at 1940z. Picked up the KH6LC multi-op at 1955z for Hawaii on
what sounded like side-scatter. They were about 559, but hearing well. KH6LC said in their 3830 post, 'We watched 10 meters all weekend which paid off Sunday morning when it opened for us at 1715z.'

"KH6LC made 488 North American contacts on 10.

"10 meters folded for me around 2200z. I dropped down to 15 and gave a very loud KH6LC (op Fred K6IJ) a contact and then A31MM. Fred, K6IJ made 1690 contest contacts from KH6LC on 15 meters. The solar flux was the same, 77 on both Saturday and Sunday. Why was 10 so much better on Sunday?"

(Note: Solar flux was rising at 74.4, 76.6, 78.1 and 80.1 on Friday through Monday).

"Feb 19 7:11 PM

"Addition - TI8/AA8HH observed, 'Tough going on Saturday on 10 meters but Sunday was better.'

"Feb. 22 E51DWC and VP6EU Pitcairn worked many in North America on 10 meters.

"Feb. 23 I heard VP6EU with a good signal on 10 meter SSB with a large pileup. I could not get through so.

"Dropped down to 12 Meters, and VP6EU was on 24.895 MHz CW in the clear CQing, and in the log with one call at 2139z. Also worked TX5T Australs on 24.897 MHz.
Solar flux of 83, K of 3.

"VP6EU tried 6 Meters Feb. 22 at 2005z, but I am unaware of any contacts. A G-1
geomagnetic storm may occur Feb 23/24, if the geomagnetic field gets active.

"73 -- Jon N0JK"


According to the ARRL DX Bulletin, the CQ World Wide 160-Meter SSB Contest is this weekend. Check http://www.cq160.com/rules.htm for rules.


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2017 were 23, 14, 13, 23, 25, 19, and 17, with a mean of 19.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74, 74.6, 76.6, 78.1, 80.7, 82.5,
and 83.2, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 20, 16, 10, 10, 4, and 10, with a mean of 11.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 16, 11, 9, 8, 4, and 8, with a mean of 9.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it wrong...
... Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under.
---
* Origin: (1:3634/12.73)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP08
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA February 23, 2018
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 24 during the previous seven days, to
5.6 in the current reporting week, February 15-21. That average is so low because no sunspots have been seen since February 17, and no new sunspot regions were observed since February 4. Average daily solar flux dropped to 70.1 in the current period from 77.4 in the previous week.

Based on the latest 45-day prediction for solar flux, I expect sunspots to re-appear by March 2 or 3, when solar flux is expected to increase suddenly.

Predicted solar flux is 68 on February 23 to March 1, 69 on March 2, 76 on March 3-12, 74 on March 13-14, 72 on March 15, 70 on March 16-25, 72 and 74 on March 26-27, and 76 on March 28 through April 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 23-25, then 12, 16 and 8 on February 26-28, 5 on March 1-3, 8 on March 4, 5 on March 5-13, then 10, 8, 12, 16, 14 and 12 on March 14-19, 8 on March 20-22, 5 on March 23-30, 8 on March 31
and 5 on April 1-8.



Greg Andracke, TI7/W2BEE wrote from Costa Rica, where he is vacationing:

"Now on the air with a 124.5 ft. sloper. Working CW ONLY when not in the pool! In Playa Garza, Guanacaste, Costa Rica until about March 15. If anyone needs a CW contact, email me at, w2bee@arrl.net -- I'm not running pileups, just chatting with folks. Made only a few contacts during ARRL DX Test because I couldn't get antenna installed until about 3 hours before the test was over.

"Worked VK3IO on 30M with my modest setup, K2/100 and sloper into 9:1 UNUN."

Greg has a fascinating career filming documentaries. See http://andracke.com/ .



A new space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov from last week: http://bit.ly/2okw04M .



Paul Gray, N0JAA of Melbourne, Florida wrote:

"Late Winter/early Spring is generally the time of year in Florida when we typically experience tropospheric ducting. 2018 is no exception. This year I have experienced a good amount of ducting on 2 meters. I don't have sideband capability on that band currently, so my experience is limited to FM repeaters and simplex. For the VHF bands of 2 meters and 1.25 meters, and the UHF 70 centimeter band (and perhaps higher), tropospheric ducting in Florida occurs mostly in the late evening and overnight hours. The 6 meter band, at least in my personal experience, does not appear to be significantly affected by tropospheric ducting.

"Over the last week or so, I have been receiving a distant repeater on my club's repeater frequency of 146.610 MHz (W4MLB) in Melbourne. I have been able
to receive and, after a fashion carry on QSOs with, several stations on the K4GSO repeater. The trick is to let each repeater drop before responding, but it can be done. Considering that 2 meters is basically line of sight +/- a few
miles beyond the horizon, and the distance between Melbourne and Ocala is approximately 150 miles, this is a good feat, especially with a 5-watt HT and a
1/2-wave mag mount antenna! I would consider this DX on 2 meters.

"This is my recent experience with propagation. It isn't ionospheric propagation, but tropospheric ducting will produce propagation on a more local scale which is useful in and of itself."



Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 23 to March 20, 2018 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on February 25-26, March 1, 6, 10, 12-13, 19-20,
Mostly quiet on February 27, March 2, 7, 11,
Quiet to unsettled on February 23-24, March 3, 5, 8, 15-16,
Quiet to active on February 28, March 4, 9, 17-18,
Active to disturbed on March 14.

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes cannot be predicted for the period until March 10, but I do not expect any significant upsurge. Then solar wind will intensify on March 18-20.

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts remain less reliable, especially in the first half of March."



Tomas Hood, NW7US who edits the Propagation column in CQ Magazine was interviewed by Eric Guth, 4Z1UG for Eric's podcast "QSO Today."

https://www.qsotoday.com/podcasts/nw7us .

If you change the end of the above URL from nw7us to k7ra, you'll hear my interview from about two years ago.



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 15-21, 2018 were 15, 12, 12, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.6. 10.7 cm flux was 72.5, 71.5, 69, 70.3, 69.1, 70.5, and 67.6, with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 7, 12, 14, 17, 5, and 4, with a mean of 10. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 10, 14, 11, 3, and 3, with a mean of 7.7.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it wrong...
... Spam will keep in it's can until the end of time.
---
* Origin: (1:3634/12.73)